Paraguay 0-0 Australia (FT). Group D, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Australia at 37% — it missed.
Paraguay0-0Australia (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group D tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Paraguay
AustraliaWe made Australia our pick at 37%; it finished 0-0 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Paraguay Australia Paraguay and Australia played out a goalless draw in Group D at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. The shot counts finished 7 to 12.
Australia controlled the ball with 56% possession and 12 shots to Paraguay's 7. An expected-goals figure of 0.25 to 0.57 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Australia the 37% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Paraguay 30%, Draw 33%, Australia 37%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Paraguay Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Paraguay and Australia played out a goalless draw in their World Cup 2026 Group D clash. The match brought two bookings and eight substitutions.
Paraguay Alexandro Maidana for Maurício SUB Jackson Irvine YELLOW Cristian Volpato for Ajdin Hrustic SUB Gabriel Ávalos for Álex Arce SUB Diego Gómez YELLOW Omar Alderete for José Canale SUB Jackson Irvine for Paul Okon-Engstler SUB Nestory Irankunda for Tete Yengi SUB Diego Gómez for Damián Bobadilla SUB Matías Galarza for Júnior Alonso SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Paraguay vs Australia in this World Cup 2026 Group D clash. Paraguay set up in a 5-3-2 and Australia in a 3-4-2-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below.
Paraguay vs Australia Paraguay 5-3-2 Confirmed XI 
Australia 3-4-2-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Paraguay's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs France (0-1). Live-form lens has them at 38%, a 8pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Australia's OutlookLast time out: drew vs Egypt (1-1). Live-form lens: 31% (6pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.19 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Australia the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Paraguay Australia6 meetings on record between Paraguay and Australia.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Paraguay 0-0 Australia |
| 2010 | Australia 1-0 Paraguay |
| 2006 | Australia 1-1 Paraguay |
| 2000 | Australia 2-1 Paraguay |
| 2000 | Australia 0-0 Paraguay |
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