Group D is one of the twelve four-team groups at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the model's opening read puts United States firmly in control — they sit #16 in the FIFA ranking and carry a 93% probability of reaching the round of 32. Australia are projected as the second qualifier on 55%, setting up a two-horse race for the automatic spots. Beyond the group, the model gives United States a 7% chance to win the tournament and 23% to reach the semi-final.
The fixture most likely to decide the group is Paraguay vs Australia. The model makes it Australia a 37% chance to win, with 33% drawn — one of the closest calls in the group, where a single goal can swing the standings.
Paraguay are the model's underdogs in Group D (a 46% advance probability), but their best opportunity comes against Australia, where the model still rates them a 30% chance to win. Snatching three points there would be enough to drag them back into the qualifying conversation and turn the group on its head.
On paper Group D shapes as one of the more competitive groups: the average FIFA ranking of the four teams is 26, and the model gives the second-place side a 55% shot at the round of 32. With the best eight third-placed teams across all groups also advancing, even a slow start is not necessarily terminal — but the model's probabilities make clear who the pressure is on.
