Portugal's Outlook
Their last outing: a loss vs Spain (0-1).
- Cristiano Ronaldo (Forward, 41) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- Bernardo Silva (Midfielder, 32) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
Portugal 2-1 Croatia (FT). Round of 32, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Portugal at 43% — it called it.
Portugal vs Croatia Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
Portugal2-1Croatia (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
Portugal93%Advance
21%Semi
11%Final
5%Champion
Croatia86%Advance
10%Semi
4%Final
2%Champion
Our model called it
We made Portugal our pick at 43%, and that's how it finished (2-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
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Portugal Croatia
Full-time Score
Model called it
2 FT 1
Portugal Croatia
Model pick: Portugal at 43%. Called it. Full breakdown
FT · model called it Match stats
What the model weighs
MildToronto conditions
Neutral venueNeither side at home
76 mToronto elevation
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
Portugal edged past Croatia 2-1 in Round of 32 at World Cup 2026, Matchday 32. Ivan Perišić opened the scoring on 53'. Later, Cristiano Ronaldo levelled it at 1-1 on 68'. Gonçalo Ramos, set up by Rafael Leão, edged Portugal in front on 90'.
Portugal controlled the ball with 61% possession and 15 shots to Croatia's 13. An expected-goals figure of 2.18 to 1.34 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Portugal the 43% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Portugal 43%, Draw 30%, Croatia 26%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
Portugal FT 2 - 1
Croatia
xG 2.18 vs 1.34
15
Total shots
13 3
Shots on goal
6 61%
Possession
39% 9
Corners
5 6
Fouls
12 91%
Pass accuracy
85% 5
Saves
2 8
Shots outside box
5 4
Blocked shots
2 10
Shots inside box
10 5
Shots outside box
3 1
Offsides
4 584
Total passes
368 1
Yellow cards
2 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
Portugal came from behind to beat Croatia 2-1 in their World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. All three goals arrived after the restart, in a second half that also brought a disallowed effort, three bookings, and nine substitutions.
Portugal 2 - 1 FT
Croatia
3 Goals
3 Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards
9 Substitutions
6 Key Moments
17' Rúben Dias YELLOW
Rúben Dias YELLOW 46' Ante Budimir for Igor Matanović SUB
Ante Budimir for Igor Matanović SUB 53' Ivan Perišić GOAL
Ivan Perišić GOAL 59' Luka Modrić YELLOW
Luka Modrić YELLOW 61' Cristiano Ronaldo Goal Disallowed - offside VAR
Cristiano Ronaldo Goal Disallowed - offside VAR 62' Vitinha for Bernardo Silva SUB
Vitinha for Bernardo Silva SUB 63' Pedro Neto for Francisco Conceição SUB
Pedro Neto for Francisco Conceição SUB 63' Bruno Fernandes for Nélson Semedo SUB
Bruno Fernandes for Nélson Semedo SUB 63' João Cancelo for Gonçalo Ramos SUB
João Cancelo for Gonçalo Ramos SUB 68' Cristiano Ronaldo GOAL
Cristiano Ronaldo GOAL 68' Martin Baturina for Mario Pašalić SUB
Martin Baturina for Mario Pašalić SUB 81' Petar Sučić Goal Disallowed - offside VAR
Petar Sučić Goal Disallowed - offside VAR 81' Cristiano Ronaldo for Rúben Neves SUB
Cristiano Ronaldo for Rúben Neves SUB 90' Nikola Vlašić for Joško Gvardiol SUB
Nikola Vlašić for Joško Gvardiol SUB 90' Gonçalo Ramos Assist: Rafael Leão GOAL
Gonçalo Ramos Assist: Rafael Leão GOAL 90' Mateo Kovačić for Andrej Kramarić SUB
Mateo Kovačić for Andrej Kramarić SUB 90' Ivan Perišić YELLOW
Ivan Perišić YELLOW 90' Joško Gvardiol Goal Disallowed - offside VAR
Joško Gvardiol Goal Disallowed - offside VAR Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Portugal vs Croatia in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. Portugal set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Croatia in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Ivan Perišić and Cristiano Ronaldo scored from the starting XI.
Portugal vs Croatia Portugal 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Diogo Costa 7.4 GK
Defence
20 João Cancelo 7.0 RB
3 Rúben Dias 7.6 CB
25 Nuno Mendes 7.5 LB
13 Renato Veiga 7.3 CB
Midfield
8 Bruno Fernandes 8.0 CM
23 Vitinha 7.5 CM
15 João Neves 7.2 DM
Attack
7 Cristiano Ronaldo 7.1 CF
17 Rafael Leão 7.0 LW
18 Pedro Neto 6.9 RW
62' Bernardo Silva for Vitinha
63' Francisco Conceição for Pedro Neto
63' Nélson Semedo for Bruno Fernandes
63' Gonçalo Ramos for João Cancelo
81' Rúben Neves for Cristiano Ronaldo
Croatia 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Dominik Livaković 6.6 GK
Defence
3 Marin Pongračić 6.8 CB
2 Josip Stanišić 7.1 RB
6 Josip Šutalo 7.2 CB
Midfield
10 Luka Modrić 7.5 CM
8 Mateo Kovačić 6.7 CM
14 Ivan Perišić 6.8 LM
13 Nikola Vlašić 7.2 AM
16 Martin Baturina 7.2 AM
17 Petar Sučić 7.4 CM
Attack
11 Ante Budimir 7.2 CF
46' Igor Matanović for Ante Budimir
68' Mario Pašalić for Martin Baturina
90' Joško Gvardiol for Nikola Vlašić
90' Andrej Kramarić for Mateo Kovačić
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Croatia's Outlook
Last time out: lost vs Portugal (1-2).
- Luka Modrić (Midfielder, 41) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- Ivan Perišić (Forward, 37) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.49 goals here.
- BTTS at 49% and Over 2.5 at 45% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The Portugal win line (43%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
- The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
- Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
43.3% Favourite
Win Probability
26.4%
93.2%
Advance to Knockout
86.1%
20.8%
Reach the Semis
10.1%
10.6%
Reach the Final
4%
5.21%
Champion Chance
1.56%
1.27 Stronger attack
xG per Match
0.93
Insight: Our model gives Portugal the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Portugal
Croatia
Recent Form & Head to Head
Portugal and Croatia have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did Portugal vs Croatia end?
Portugal 2-1 Croatia (FT) in the Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Toronto. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get Portugal vs Croatia right?
Yes. Our structural model made Portugal the pick at 43% (43/30/26), and the match finished portugal win (2-1). The model called it.
When and where was Portugal vs Croatia played?
Thursday, July 2, 2026, Toronto. Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 43/30/26 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between Portugal and Croatia?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between Portugal and Croatia in our dataset.