Portugal 1-1 DR Congo (FT). Group K, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Portugal at 61% — it missed.
Portugal1-1DR Congo (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group K tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Portugal
DR CongoWe made Portugal our pick at 61%; it finished 1-1 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Portugal DR Congo Portugal and DR Congo shared a 1-1 draw in Group K at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. João Neves, set up by Pedro Neto, opened the scoring on 6'. Later, Yoane Wissa, set up by Arthur Masuaku, levelled it at 1-1 on 45'.
Portugal controlled the ball with 75% possession and 7 shots to DR Congo's 8. An expected-goals figure of 0.62 to 0.82 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Portugal the 61% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Portugal 61%, Draw 25%, DR Congo 13%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Portugal Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Portugal and DR Congo drew 1-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group K clash. All two goals came before the break, in a first half that also brought four bookings and nine substitutions.
Portugal João Neves Assist: Pedro Neto GOAL Bernardo Silva YELLOW Chancel Mbemba YELLOW Yoane Wissa Assist: Arthur Masuaku GOAL Bernardo Silva for Francisco Conceição SUB Ngal'ayel Mukau for Noah Sadiki SUB Pedro Neto for Rafael Leão SUB Nuno Mendes for Nélson Semedo SUB Edo Kayembe for Charles Pickel SUB Arthur Masuaku for Joris Kayembe SUB Vitinha for Gonçalo Ramos SUB Cédric Bakambu for Simon Banza SUB Aaron Wan-Bissaka for Gédéon Kalulu SUB Nélson Semedo YELLOW Tomás Araújo YELLOW Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Portugal vs DR Congo in this World Cup 2026 Group K clash. Portugal set up in a 4-2-3-1 and DR Congo in a 5-3-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. João Neves and Yoane Wissa scored from the starting XI.
Portugal vs DR Congo Portugal 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
DR Congo 5-3-2 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Portugal's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Spain (0-1). Live-form lens has them at 60%, broadly in line with the structural model.
DR Congo's OutlookLast time out: lost vs England (1-2). Live-form lens: 14%.
The model expects roughly 2.62 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Portugal the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Portugal DR Congo1 meeting on record between Portugal and DR Congo.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Portugal 1-1 DR Congo |
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