Portugal 5-0 Uzbekistan (FT). Group K, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Portugal at 62% — it called it.
Portugal5-0Uzbekistan (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group K tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Portugal
UzbekistanWe made Portugal our pick at 62%, and that's how it finished (5-0). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Portugal Uzbekistan Portugal beat Uzbekistan 5-0 in Group K at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Cristiano Ronaldo, set up by João Cancelo, opened the scoring on 6'. Later, Nuno Mendes doubled the lead on 17'. Cristiano Ronaldo, set up by Bruno Fernandes, added a third on 39'. Then an own goal added a fourth on 60'. Later, Rafael Leão made it 5-0 on 87'.
Portugal controlled the ball with 66% possession and 17 shots to Uzbekistan's 7. An expected-goals figure of 2.61 to 0.24 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Portugal generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Portugal the 62% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Portugal 62%, Draw 25%, Uzbekistan 13%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Portugal Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Portugal beat Uzbekistan 5-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group K clash. The five goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a disallowed effort, two bookings, and ten substitutions.
Portugal Cristiano Ronaldo Assist: João Cancelo GOAL Odiljon Hamrobekov YELLOW Nuno Mendes GOAL Azizjon Ganiev Goal Disallowed - Foul VAR Cristiano Ronaldo Assist: Bruno Fernandes GOAL João Cancelo for Nélson Semedo SUB Pedro Neto for Francisco Conceição SUB Sherzod Nasrullaev for Khojiakbar Alijonov SUB Odiljon Hamrobekov for Akmal Mozgovoy SUB Abduvohid Nematov GOAL João Félix for Francisco Trincão SUB Renato Veiga YELLOW Abbosbek Fayzullaev for Igor Sergeev SUB João Neves for Bernardo Silva SUB Vitinha for Rafael Leão SUB Rafael Leão GOAL Bekhruz Karimov SUB Otabek Shukurov for Sherzod Esanov SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Portugal vs Uzbekistan in this World Cup 2026 Group K clash. Portugal set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Uzbekistan in a 5-4-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Cristiano Ronaldo and Nuno Mendes scored from the starting XI.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan Portugal 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Uzbekistan 5-4-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Portugal's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Spain (0-1). Live-form lens has them at 56%, a 6pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Uzbekistan's OutlookLast time out: lost vs DR Congo (1-3). Live-form lens: 17%.
The model expects roughly 2.63 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Portugal the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Portugal Uzbekistan1 meeting on record between Portugal and Uzbekistan.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Portugal 5-0 Uzbekistan |
Best sportsbooks for Portugal vs Uzbekistan, chosen for 1X2 depth, fast payouts, and strong welcome offers. Compare every site.
18+ only. T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly. Affiliate disclosure.
