Spain's Outlook
Their last outing: a win vs Argentina (1-0).
- Rodri (Midfielder, 30) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- Unai Simón (Goalkeeper, 29) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
Spain 3-0 Austria (FT). Round of 32, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Spain at 58% — it called it.
Spain vs Austria Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
Spain3-0Austria (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
Spain98%Advance
33%Semi
20%Final
12%Champion
Austria76%Advance
5%Semi
2%Final
1%Champion
Our model called it
We made Spain our pick at 58%, and that's how it finished (3-0). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
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Spain Austria
Full-time Score
Model called it
3 FT 0
Spain Austria
Model pick: Spain at 58%. Called it. Full breakdown
FT · model called it Match stats
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
Spain beat Austria 3-0 in Round of 32 at World Cup 2026, Matchday 32. Mikel Oyarzabal, set up by Marc Cucurella, opened the scoring on 36'. Later, Pedro Porro, set up by Álex Baena, doubled the lead on 66'. Mikel Oyarzabal, set up by Marc Cucurella, added a third on 89'.
Spain controlled the ball with 65% possession and 22 shots to Austria's 5. An expected-goals figure of 2.80 to 0.49 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Spain generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Spain the 58% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Spain 58%, Draw 26%, Austria 16%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
Spain FT 3 - 0
Austria
xG 2.80 vs 0.49
22
Total shots
5 10
Shots on goal
0 65%
Possession
35% 9
Corners
0 8
Fouls
14 91%
Pass accuracy
82% 0
Saves
6 5
Shots outside box
4 7
Blocked shots
1 14
Shots inside box
4 8
Shots outside box
1 2
Offsides
5 613
Total passes
334 0
Yellow cards
1 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
Spain beat Austria 3-0 in their World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. The three goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a booking and ten substitutions.
Spain 3 - 0 FT
Austria
3 Goals
1 Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards
10 Substitutions
4 Key Moments
36' Mikel Oyarzabal Assist: Marc Cucurella GOAL
Mikel Oyarzabal Assist: Marc Cucurella GOAL 46' Nicolas Seiwald for Carney Chukwuemeka SUB
Nicolas Seiwald for Carney Chukwuemeka SUB 46' Xaver Schlager for Florian Grillitsch SUB
Xaver Schlager for Florian Grillitsch SUB 60' Michael Gregoritsch for Marko Arnautović SUB
Michael Gregoritsch for Marko Arnautović SUB 60' Romano Schmid for Saša Kalajdžić SUB
Romano Schmid for Saša Kalajdžić SUB 66' Pedro Porro Assist: Álex Baena GOAL
Pedro Porro Assist: Álex Baena GOAL 71' Álex Baena for Ferran Torres SUB
Álex Baena for Ferran Torres SUB 71' Dani Olmo for Mikel Merino SUB
Dani Olmo for Mikel Merino SUB 83' Stefan Posch YELLOW
Stefan Posch YELLOW 85' Lamine Yamal for Gavi SUB
Lamine Yamal for Gavi SUB 85' Stefan Posch for Alexander Prass SUB
Stefan Posch for Alexander Prass SUB 89' Mikel Oyarzabal Assist: Marc Cucurella GOAL
Mikel Oyarzabal Assist: Marc Cucurella GOAL 90' Pedri for Fabián Ruiz SUB
Pedri for Fabián Ruiz SUB 90' Aymeric Laporte for Marc Pubill SUB
Aymeric Laporte for Marc Pubill SUB Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Spain vs Austria in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. Spain set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Austria in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Mikel Oyarzabal and Pedro Porro scored from the starting XI.
Spain vs Austria Spain 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
23 Unai Simón 7.1 GK
Defence
14 Aymeric Laporte 8.2 CB
24 Marc Cucurella 7.3 LB
12 Pedro Porro RB
22 Pau Cubarsí 7.8 CB
Midfield
16 Rodri 8.6 DM
10 Dani Olmo 6.8 AM
20 Pedri 9.1 CM
15 Álex Baena LM
Attack
21 Mikel Oyarzabal 2 6.0 LW
19 Lamine Yamal 6.8 RW
71' Ferran Torres for Álex Baena
71' Mikel Merino for Dani Olmo
85' Gavi for Lamine Yamal
90' Fabián Ruiz for Pedri
90' Marc Pubill for Aymeric Laporte
Austria 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Alexander Schlager 6.8 GK
Defence
8 David Alaba 7.5 CB
20 Konrad Laimer 6.3 RB
5 Stefan Posch 5.8 CB
3 Kevin Danso 6.9 CB
Midfield
9 Marcel Sabitzer 6.8 CM
4 Xaver Schlager 6.7 CM
18 Romano Schmid 7.2 AM
6 Nicolas Seiwald 7.5 DM
24 Paul Wanner 6.3 AM
Attack
11 Michael Gregoritsch 6.6 CF
46' Carney Chukwuemeka for Nicolas Seiwald
46' Florian Grillitsch for Xaver Schlager
60' Marko Arnautović for Michael Gregoritsch
60' Saša Kalajdžić for Romano Schmid
85' Alexander Prass for Stefan Posch
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Austria's Outlook
Last time out: lost vs Spain (0-3).
- Marko Arnautović (Forward, 37) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- David Alaba (Defender, 34) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.73 goals here.
- BTTS at 48% and Over 2.5 at 51% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The Spain win line (58%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
- The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
- Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
58.1% Favourite
Win Probability
15.9%
98.2%
Advance to Knockout
75.8%
33.3%
Reach the Semis
5.2%
20.2%
Reach the Final
1.9%
12.27%
Champion Chance
0.61%
2.00 Stronger attack
xG per Match
1.20
Insight: Our model gives Spain the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Spain
Austria
Recent Form & Head to Head
Spain and Austria have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did Spain vs Austria end?
Spain 3-0 Austria (FT) in the Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Inglewood, CA. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get Spain vs Austria right?
Yes. Our structural model made Spain the pick at 58% (58/26/16), and the match finished spain win (3-0). The model called it.
When and where was Spain vs Austria played?
Thursday, July 2, 2026, Inglewood, CA. Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 58/26/16 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between Spain and Austria?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between Spain and Austria in our dataset.