Spain 0-0 Cape Verde (FT). Group H, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Spain at 78% — it missed.
Spain0-0Cape Verde (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group H tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Spain
Cape VerdeWe made Spain our pick at 78%; it finished 0-0 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Spain Cape Verde Spain and Cape Verde played out a goalless draw in Group H at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. The shot counts finished 25 to 6.
Spain controlled the ball with 74% possession and 25 shots to Cape Verde's 6. An expected-goals figure of 2.16 to 0.28 says the margin understated how one-sided this was. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Spain generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Spain the 78% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Spain 78%, Draw 16%, Cape Verde 6%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Spain Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Spain and Cape Verde played out a goalless draw in their World Cup 2026 Group H clash. The match brought two bookings and nine substitutions.
Spain Sidny Lopes Cabral YELLOW Jovane Cabral for Willy Semedo SUB Dailon Livramento for Nuno da Costa SUB Laros Duarte for Deroy Duarte SUB Fabián Ruiz for Mikel Merino SUB Gavi for Lamine Yamal SUB Sidny Lopes Cabral for João Paulo SUB Jamiro Monteiro for Telmo Arcanjo SUB Ferran Torres for Dani Olmo SUB Rodri for Nico Williams SUB Pedri YELLOW Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Spain vs Cape Verde in this World Cup 2026 Group H clash. Spain set up in a 4-3-3 and Cape Verde in a 4-1-4-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below.
Spain vs Cape Verde Spain 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Cape Verde 4-1-4-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Spain's OutlookTheir last outing: a win vs Argentina (1-0). Live-form lens has them at 76%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Cape Verde's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Argentina (2-3). Over 2.5 at 63% means the model expects this to stay open, which suits teams comfortable in transitions. Live-form lens: 7%.
The model expects roughly 3.24 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Spain the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Spain Cape Verde1 meeting on record between Spain and Cape Verde.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Spain 0-0 Cape Verde |
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