Tunisia 0-4 Japan (FT). Group F, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Japan at 53% — it called it.
Tunisia0-4Japan (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group F tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Tunisia
JapanWe made Japan our pick at 53%, and that's how it finished (0-4). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Tunisia Japan Japan beat Tunisia 4-0 in Group F at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Daichi Kamada, set up by Keito Nakamura, opened the scoring on 4'. Later, Ayase Ueda, set up by Kō Itakura, doubled the lead on 31'. Junya Itō, set up by Ayase Ueda, added a third on 69'. Then Ayase Ueda, set up by Kaishū Sano, added a fourth on 83'.
Japan controlled the ball with 62% possession and 11 shots to Tunisia's 2. An expected-goals figure of 0.05 to 2.07 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Japan generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Japan the 53% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Tunisia 18%, Draw 29%, Japan 53%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Tunisia Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Japan beat Tunisia 4-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group F clash. The four goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought ten substitutions.
Tunisia Daichi Kamada Assist: Keito Nakamura GOAL Ayase Ueda Assist: Kō Itakura GOAL Elias Saad for Ismaël Gharbi SUB Dylan Bronn for Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida SUB Sebastian Tounekti for Firas Chaouat SUB Junya Itō Assist: Ayase Ueda GOAL Daichi Kamada for Junnosuke Suzuki SUB Ritsu Dōan for Yukinari Sugawara SUB Keito Nakamura for Yuito Suzuki SUB Takehiro Tomiyasu for Ayumu Seko SUB Ayase Ueda Assist: Kaishū Sano GOAL Ayase Ueda for Keisuke Gotō SUB Ali Abdi for Elias Achouri SUB Ellyes Skhiri for Rani Khedira SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Tunisia vs Japan in this World Cup 2026 Group F clash. Tunisia set up in a 3-4-2-1 and Japan in a 3-4-2-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Daichi Kamada, Ayase Ueda, and Junya Itō scored from the starting XI.
Tunisia vs Japan Tunisia 3-4-2-1 Confirmed XI 
Japan 3-4-2-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Tunisia's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Netherlands (1-3). Live-form lens has them at 15%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Japan's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Brazil (1-2). Live-form lens: 59% (6pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.38 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Japan the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Tunisia Japan6 meetings on record between Tunisia and Japan.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Tunisia 0-4 Japan |
| 2022 | Japan 0-3 Tunisia |
| 2015 | Japan 2-0 Tunisia |
| 2003 | Tunisia 0-1 Japan |
| 2002 | Japan 2-0 Tunisia |
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