Summary

Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands (FT). Group F, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Netherlands at 61% — it called it.

Tunisia vs Netherlands Result, Stats & How Our Model Did

Tunisia1-3Netherlands (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group F tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.

How Our Model Did

Where they go from here

Tunisia

37%Advance

1%Semi

0%Final

0%Champion

Netherlands

89%Advance

16%Semi

8%Final

4%Champion

Our model called it

We made Netherlands our pick at 61%, and that's how it finished (1-3). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.

Model pick: Netherlands 61% Structural: 14/25/61 Actual: Netherlands win (1-3)

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Final Result FT

Thu, Jun 25 · Kansas City · Match 3 · Group F

Tunisia

Netherlands

Full-time Score Model called it

1 FT 3

Tunisia Netherlands

Model pick: Netherlands at 61%. Called it. Full breakdown

FT · model called it Match stats

What the model weighs

HotKansas City conditions

1582.1 / 1044.7 kmTravel, TUN / NET

5 days eachRest before kickoff

Neutral venueNeither side at home

270 mKansas City elevation

100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges

Match Report

Netherlands beat Tunisia 3-1 in Group F at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. An own goal put Netherlands ahead on 3'. Moments later, Brian Brobbey, set up by Virgil van Dijk, doubled the lead on 7'. Hazem Mastouri, set up by Hannibal Mejbri, pulled one back for Tunisia on 54'. Moments later, Jan Paul van Hecke, set up by Tijjani Reijnders, added a third on 62'.

Netherlands controlled the ball with 71% possession and 20 shots to Tunisia's 10. An expected-goals figure of 0.62 to 1.85 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Netherlands generated the clearer chances by some distance.

Our structural model had made Netherlands the 61% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Tunisia 14%, Draw 25%, Netherlands 61%. See our methodology for how the model is built.

Match Stats Compare Sites

Match Stats

Tunisia

FT 1 - 3

Netherlands

xG 0.62 vs 1.85

Total shots

Shots on goal

29%

Possession

71%

Corners

Fouls

77%

Pass accuracy

93%

Saves

Shots outside box

Blocked shots

Shots inside box

Shots outside box

Offsides

258

Total passes

647

Yellow cards

Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.

Match Timeline

Netherlands beat Tunisia 3-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group F clash. The four goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought ten substitutions.

Tunisia

1 - 3 FT

Netherlands

4 Goals

0 Yellow Cards

0 Red Cards

10 Substitutions

4 Key Moments

Ellyes Skhiri GOAL

Brian Brobbey Assist: Virgil van Dijk GOAL

54'

Hazem Mastouri Assist: Hannibal Mejbri GOAL

62'

Jan Paul van Hecke Assist: Tijjani Reijnders GOAL

67'

Rani Khedira for Hadj Mahmoud SUB

68'

Anis Ben Slimane for Elias Achouri SUB

68'

Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida for Mortadha Ben Ouanes SUB

72'

Frenkie de Jong for Teun Koopmeiners SUB

72'

Tijjani Reijnders for Justin Kluivert SUB

72'

Donyell Malen for Crysencio Summerville SUB

75'

Ismaël Gharbi for Firas Chaouat SUB

77'

Brian Brobbey for Memphis Depay SUB

84'

Cody Gakpo for Noa Lang SUB

90'

Hazem Mastouri for Sebastian Tounekti SUB

Lineups

Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Tunisia vs Netherlands in this World Cup 2026 Group F clash. Tunisia set up in a 5-4-1 and Netherlands in a 4-3-3, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Brian Brobbey, Hazem Mastouri, and Jan Paul van Hecke scored from the starting XI.

Tunisia vs Netherlands

Tunisia 5-4-1 Confirmed XI

Ellyes Skhiri Key player · 6.5

Montassar Talbi Key player · 6.5

Ali Abdi Key player · 5.6

Goalkeeper

16 Aymen Dahmen 7.5 GK

Defence

20 Yan Valery 5.7 RB

3 Montassar Talbi 6.5 CB

2 Ali Abdi 5.6 LB

21 Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida 6.8 LB

Midfield

17 Ellyes Skhiri 6.5 DM

13 Rani Khedira 6.0 DM

25 Anis Ben Slimane 6.3 CM

11 Ismaël Gharbi 6.5 AM

10 Hannibal Mejbri 7.0 AM

Attack

9 Hazem Mastouri 7.8 CF

67' Hadj Mahmoud for Rani Khedira

68' Elias Achouri for Anis Ben Slimane

68' Mortadha Ben Ouanes for Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida

75' Firas Chaouat for Ismaël Gharbi

90' Sebastian Tounekti for Hazem Mastouri

Netherlands 4-3-3 Confirmed XI

Virgil van Dijk Key player · 7.8

Denzel Dumfries Key player · 6.0

Frenkie de Jong Key player · 6.9

Goalkeeper

1 Bart Verbruggen 6.5 GK

Defence

5 Nathan Aké 6.5 CB

4 Virgil van Dijk 7.8 CB

6 Jan Paul van Hecke 9.2 CB

Midfield

22 Denzel Dumfries 6.0 RM

21 Frenkie de Jong 6.9 CM

8 Ryan Gravenberch 6.9 CM

14 Tijjani Reijnders 7.1 CM

Attack

18 Donyell Malen 6.7 RW

11 Cody Gakpo 6.3 LW

19 Brian Brobbey 7.2 CF

72' Teun Koopmeiners for Frenkie de Jong

72' Justin Kluivert for Tijjani Reijnders

72' Crysencio Summerville for Donyell Malen

77' Memphis Depay for Brian Brobbey

84' Noa Lang for Cody Gakpo

Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off

Match Analysis

Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.

Tunisia's Outlook

Their last outing: a loss vs Netherlands (1-3). Live-form lens has them at 14%, broadly in line with the structural model.

Ellyes Skhiri (Midfielder, 31) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Montassar Talbi (Defender, 28) is one of the names the squad model leans on.

Netherlands's Outlook

Last time out: drew vs Morocco (1-1). Live-form lens: 62%.

Memphis Depay (Forward, 32) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Virgil van Dijk (Defender, 35) carries real weight in the squad metrics.

Key Matchups

The model expects roughly 2.62 goals here.

BTTS at 43% and Over 2.5 at 49% point to how open the model expects this to be.
The Netherlands win line (61%) is the single most likely team outcome.

Our Take

No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.

The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.

Tale of the Tape

Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.

Tunisia CAF

Group F, 4th

UEFA Netherlands

Group F, 1st

13.5%

Win Probability

Favourite 61%

36.8%

Advance to Knockout

89.3%

0.7%

Reach the Semis

15.9%

0.2%

Reach the Final

8.3%

0.07%

Champion Chance

4.07%

0.27

xG per Match

Stronger attack 1.63

Insight: Our model gives Netherlands the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.

View full match stats Group F standings & all matches

Group F: standings & all matches

Key Players

The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.

Tunisia

Ellyes Skhiri C

Midfielder · 31 · Eintracht Frankfurt (GER)

84Caps

4Goals

Montassar Talbi

Defender · 28 · FC Lorient (FRA)

65Caps

4Goals

Dylan Bronn

Defender · 31 · Servette FC (SUI)

52Caps

2Goals

Ali Abdi

Defender · 33 · OGC Nice (FRA)

47Caps

7Goals

Netherlands

Memphis Depay C

Forward · 32 · SC Corinthians (BRA)

110Caps

55Goals

Virgil van Dijk

Defender · 35 · Liverpool FC (ENG)

93Caps

13Goals

Denzel Dumfries

Defender · 30 · FC Internazionale Milano (ITA)

73Caps

11Goals

Frenkie de Jong

Midfielder · 29 · FC Barcelona (ESP)

67Caps

2Goals

Recent Form & Head to Head

L1-3

vs Netherlands

L0-4

vs Japan

L1-5

vs Sweden

L0-5

vs Belgium

L0-1

vs Austria

View match analysis

D1-1

vs Morocco

W3-1

vs Tunisia

W5-1

vs Sweden

D2-2

vs Japan

W2-1

vs Uzbekistan

View match analysis

4 meetings on record between Tunisia and Netherlands.

Year	Score
2026	Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands
2009	Tunisia 1-1 Netherlands
1994	Tunisia 2-2 Netherlands
1978	Tunisia 0-4 Netherlands

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did Tunisia vs Netherlands end?

Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands (FT) in the Group F stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Kansas City. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.

Did the model get Tunisia vs Netherlands right?

Yes. Our structural model made Netherlands the pick at 61% (14/25/61), and the match finished netherlands win (1-3). The model called it.

When and where was Tunisia vs Netherlands played?

Thursday, June 25, 2026, Kansas City. Group F stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.

How does the model do over a full tournament?

One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 14/25/61 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.

What was the head-to-head record between Tunisia and Netherlands?

Before this match, Tunisia and Netherlands had met 4 times: 0 Tunisia wins, 2 Netherlands wins, 2 draws.