Turkey 0-1 Paraguay (FT). Group D, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Turkey at 46% — it missed.
Turkey0-1Paraguay (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group D tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Turkey
ParaguayWe made Turkey our pick at 46%; it finished 0-1 (paraguay win). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Turkey Paraguay Paraguay edged past Turkey 1-0 in Group D at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Matías Galarza, set up by Julio Enciso, opened the scoring on 2'.
Turkey controlled the ball with 79% possession and 32 shots to Paraguay's 7. An expected-goals figure of 2.17 to 0.32 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Turkey generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Turkey the 46% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Turkey 46%, Draw 31%, Paraguay 23%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Turkey Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Paraguay beat Turkey 1-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group D clash. The only goal came before the break, in a first half that also brought a disallowed effort, one red card, two bookings, and ten substitutions.
Turkey Matías Galarza Assist: Julio Enciso GOAL Matías Galarza YELLOW Miguel Almirón RED Miguel Almirón Card reviewed VAR Kerem Aktürkoğlu for Barış Alper Yılmaz SUB Isidro Pitta for Damián Bobadilla SUB Yunus Akgün for Deniz Gül SUB İsmail Yüksek for Can Uzun SUB Diego Gómez for Gustavo Velázquez SUB Ferdi Kadıoğlu for Eren Elmalı SUB Eren Elmalı YELLOW Juan José Cáceres for Alexandro Maidana SUB Abdülkerim Bardakcı for Orkun Kökçü SUB Julio Enciso for Gabriel Ávalos SUB Matías Galarza for José Canale SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Turkey vs Paraguay in this World Cup 2026 Group D clash. Turkey set up in a 4-3-3 and Paraguay in a 4-4-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Matías Galarza scored from the starting XI.
Turkey vs Paraguay Turkey 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Paraguay 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Turkey's OutlookTheir last outing: a win vs United States (3-2). Live-form lens has them at 44%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Paraguay's OutlookLast time out: lost vs France (0-1). Live-form lens: 27%.
The model expects roughly 2.34 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Turkey the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Turkey Paraguay1 meeting on record between Turkey and Paraguay.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Turkey 0-1 Paraguay |
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