United States's Outlook
Their last outing: a loss vs Belgium (1-4).
- Christian Pulisic (Forward, 28) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- Tim Ream (Defender, 39) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
United States 1-4 Belgium (FT). Round of 16, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was United States at 36% — it missed.
United States vs Belgium Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
United States1-4Belgium (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Round of 16 tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
United States93%Advance
23%Semi
13%Final
7%Champion
Belgium95%Advance
16%Semi
8%Final
4%Champion
Our model missed
We made United States our pick at 36%; it finished 1-4 (belgium win). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Final Result FT
United States Belgium
Full-time Score
Model missed
1 FT 4
United States Belgium
Model picked United States at 36%. Missed (actual: Belgium win). Full breakdown
FT · model missed Match stats
What the model weighs
MildSeattle, WA conditions
Neutral venueNeither side at home
5 mSeattle, WA elevation
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
Belgium beat United States 4-1 in Round of 16 at World Cup 2026, Matchday 16. Charles De Ketelaere, set up by Nicolas Raskin, opened the scoring on 9'. Later, Malik Tillman levelled it at 1-1 on 31'. Soon after, Charles De Ketelaere, set up by Leandro Trossard, restored Belgium's lead on 33'. Then Hans Vanaken, set up by Charles De Ketelaere, added a third on 57'. Later, Romelu Lukaku, set up by Hans Vanaken, added a fourth on 90'.
United States controlled the ball with 56% possession and 7 shots to Belgium's 15. An expected-goals figure of 0.67 to 2.15 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Belgium generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made United States the 36% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read United States 36%, Draw 31%, Belgium 34%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
United States FT 1 - 4
Belgium
xG 0.67 vs 2.15
7
Total shots
15 2
Shots on goal
7 56%
Possession
44% 3
Corners
5 11
Fouls
9 87%
Pass accuracy
81% 3
Saves
1 5
Shots outside box
4 0
Blocked shots
4 5
Shots inside box
10 2
Shots outside box
5 0
Offsides
1 527
Total passes
410 2
Yellow cards
0 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
Belgium beat United States 4-1 in their World Cup 2026 Round of 16 clash. The five goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought two bookings and ten substitutions.
United States 1 - 4 FT
Belgium
5 Goals
2 Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards
10 Substitutions
7 Key Moments
9' Charles De Ketelaere Assist: Nicolas Raskin GOAL
Charles De Ketelaere Assist: Nicolas Raskin GOAL 21' Amadou Onana for Hans Vanaken SUB
Amadou Onana for Hans Vanaken SUB 31' Malik Tillman GOAL
Malik Tillman GOAL 33' Charles De Ketelaere Assist: Leandro Trossard GOAL
Charles De Ketelaere Assist: Leandro Trossard GOAL 35' Weston McKennie YELLOW
Weston McKennie YELLOW 46' Sergiño Dest for Giovanni Reyna SUB
Sergiño Dest for Giovanni Reyna SUB 57' Hans Vanaken Assist: Charles De Ketelaere GOAL
Hans Vanaken Assist: Charles De Ketelaere GOAL 59' Christian Pulisic for Sebastian Berhalter SUB
Christian Pulisic for Sebastian Berhalter SUB 67' Dodi Lukébakio for Jérémy Doku SUB
Dodi Lukébakio for Jérémy Doku SUB 67' Charles De Ketelaere for Romelu Lukaku SUB
Charles De Ketelaere for Romelu Lukaku SUB 69' Malik Tillman YELLOW
Malik Tillman YELLOW 72' Tyler Adams for Ricardo Pepi SUB
Tyler Adams for Ricardo Pepi SUB 89' Leandro Trossard for Alexis Saelemaekers SUB
Leandro Trossard for Alexis Saelemaekers SUB 89' Nicolas Raskin for Axel Witsel SUB
Nicolas Raskin for Axel Witsel SUB 90' Folarin Balogun for Haji Wright SUB
Folarin Balogun for Haji Wright SUB 90' Antonee Robinson for Maximilian Arfsten SUB
Antonee Robinson for Maximilian Arfsten SUB 90' Romelu Lukaku Assist: Hans Vanaken GOAL
Romelu Lukaku Assist: Hans Vanaken GOAL Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for United States vs Belgium in this World Cup 2026 Round of 16 clash. United States set up in a 4-1-2-3 and Belgium in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Charles De Ketelaere and Malik Tillman scored from the starting XI.
United States vs Belgium United States 4-1-2-3 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
24 Matt Freese 6.8 GK
Defence
13 Tim Ream 7.0 CB
5 Antonee Robinson 7.2 LB
2 Sergiño Dest 6.7 RB
3 Chris Richards 7.3 CB
16 Alex Freeman 7.7 RB
Midfield
8 Weston McKennie 7.0 CM
4 Tyler Adams 7.0 M
17 Malik Tillman 7.0 AM
Attack
10 Christian Pulisic 7.1 RW
20 Folarin Balogun 6.4 CF
46' Giovanni Reyna for Sergiño Dest
59' Sebastian Berhalter for Christian Pulisic
72' Ricardo Pepi for Tyler Adams
90' Haji Wright for Folarin Balogun
90' Maximilian Arfsten for Antonee Robinson
Belgium 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Thibaut Courtois 7.1 GK
Defence
4 Brandon Mechele 7.2 CB
21 Timothy Castagne 7.1 RB
5 Maxim De Cuyper 7.0 LB
25 Nathan Ngoy 7.0 CB
Midfield
8 Youri Tielemans 7.3 CM
17 Charles De Ketelaere 2 6.6 AM
24 Amadou Onana 6.7 DM
23 Nicolas Raskin 7.3 DM
Attack
10 Leandro Trossard 8.0 LW
14 Dodi Lukébakio 6.8 RW
21' Hans Vanaken for Amadou Onana
67' Jérémy Doku for Dodi Lukébakio
67' Romelu Lukaku for Charles De Ketelaere
89' Alexis Saelemaekers for Leandro Trossard
89' Axel Witsel for Nicolas Raskin
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Belgium's Outlook
Last time out: lost vs Spain (1-2).
- Axel Witsel (Midfielder, 37) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- Romelu Lukaku (Forward, 33) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.47 goals here.
- BTTS at 50% and Over 2.5 at 45% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The United States win line (36%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
- The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
- Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
35.5% Favourite
Win Probability
33.5%
92.6%
Advance to Knockout
94.6%
23.3%
Reach the Semis
16%
12.8%
Reach the Final
7.5%
6.75%
Champion Chance
3.57%
1.57
xG per Match
Stronger attack 2.27
Insight: Our model gives United States the edge, fractionally ahead on four of six measures: a higher win probability, a clearer path to the semis and stronger odds of reaching the final.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
United States
Belgium
Recent Form & Head to Head
L1-4
vs BelgiumW2-0
vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaL2-3
vs TurkeyW2-0
vs AustraliaW4-1
vs ParaguayUnited States and Belgium have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did United States vs Belgium end?
United States 1-4 Belgium (FT) in the Round of 16 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Seattle, WA. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get United States vs Belgium right?
No. Our structural model made United States the pick at 36% (36/31/34), but it finished belgium win (1-4). The model missed this one, and we'd rather say so than dress it up.
When and where was United States vs Belgium played?
Tuesday, July 7, 2026, Seattle, WA. Round of 16 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 36/31/34 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between United States and Belgium?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between United States and Belgium in our dataset.