United States's Outlook
Their last outing: a loss vs Belgium (1-4).
- Christian Pulisic (Forward, 28) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- Tim Ream (Defender, 39) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
United States 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina (FT). Round of 32, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was United States at 61% — it called it.
United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
United States2-0Bosnia and Herzegovina (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
United States93%Advance
23%Semi
13%Final
7%Champion
Bosnia and Herzegovina56%Advance
1%Semi
0%Final
0%Champion
Our model called it
We made United States our pick at 61%, and that's how it finished (2-0). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
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United States Bosnia and Herzegovina
Full-time Score
Model called it
2 FT 0
United States Bosnia and Herzegovina
Model pick: United States at 61%. Called it. Full breakdown
FT · model called it Match stats
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
United States beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in Round of 32 at World Cup 2026, Matchday 32. Folarin Balogun opened the scoring on 45'. Later, Malik Tillman doubled the lead on 82'.
Bosnia and Herzegovina controlled the ball with 52% possession and 10 shots to United States' 8. An expected-goals figure of 0.92 to 0.25 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made United States the 61% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was United States 61%, Draw 26%, Bosnia and Herzegovina 14%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
United States FT 2 - 0
Bosnia and Herzegovina
xG 0.92 vs 0.25
8
Total shots
10 2
Shots on goal
3 48%
Possession
52% 4
Corners
3 7
Fouls
13 83%
Pass accuracy
82% 3
Saves
0 4
Shots outside box
4 2
Blocked shots
3 6
Shots inside box
5 2
Shots outside box
5 3
Offsides
0 415
Total passes
446 0
Yellow cards
1 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
United States beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in their World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. The two goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought one red card, two bookings, and eight substitutions.
United States 2 - 0 FT
Bosnia and Herzegovina
2 Goals
2 Yellow Cards
1 Red Cards
8 Substitutions
5 Key Moments
45' Folarin Balogun GOAL
Folarin Balogun GOAL 51' Armin Gigović for Esmir Bajraktarević SUB
Armin Gigović for Esmir Bajraktarević SUB 51' Ivan Šunjić for Benjamin Tahirović SUB
Ivan Šunjić for Benjamin Tahirović SUB 51' Edin Džeko for Ermin Mahmić SUB
Edin Džeko for Ermin Mahmić SUB 64' Folarin Balogun RED
Folarin Balogun RED 75' Sead Kolašinac for Haris Tabaković SUB
Sead Kolašinac for Haris Tabaković SUB 75' Nikola Katić for Amar Memić SUB
Nikola Katić for Amar Memić SUB 80' Nikola Katić YELLOW
Nikola Katić YELLOW 80' Stjepan Radeljić YELLOW
Stjepan Radeljić YELLOW 82' Malik Tillman GOAL
Malik Tillman GOAL 87' Sergiño Dest for Sebastian Berhalter SUB
Sergiño Dest for Sebastian Berhalter SUB 88' Christian Pulisic for Ricardo Pepi SUB
Christian Pulisic for Ricardo Pepi SUB 90' Weston McKennie for Giovanni Reyna SUB
Weston McKennie for Giovanni Reyna SUB Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. United States set up in a 4-1-4-1 and Bosnia and Herzegovina in a 5-3-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Folarin Balogun and Malik Tillman scored from the starting XI.
United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina United States 4-1-4-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
24 Matt Freese 6.8 GK
Defence
13 Tim Ream 7.0 CB
5 Antonee Robinson 7.2 LB
2 Sergiño Dest 6.7 RB
3 Chris Richards 7.3 CB
16 Alex Freeman 7.7 RB
Midfield
8 Weston McKennie 7.0 CM
4 Tyler Adams 7.0 M
17 Malik Tillman 7.0 AM
Attack
10 Christian Pulisic 7.1 RW
20 Folarin Balogun 6.4 CF
87' Sebastian Berhalter for Sergiño Dest
88' Ricardo Pepi for Christian Pulisic
90' Giovanni Reyna for Weston McKennie
Bosnia and Herzegovina 5-3-2 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Nikola Vasilj 6.2 GK
Defence
21 Stjepan Radeljić 7.0 CB
7 Amar Dedić 6.3 RB
4 Tarik Muharemović 7.0 CB
Midfield
5 Sead Kolašinac 6.8 D
18 Nikola Katić 7.1 D
14 Ivan Šunjić 6.5 DM
8 Armin Gigović 6.8 M
Attack
11 Edin Džeko 6.6 CF
10 Ermedin Demirović 6.4 F
19 Kerim Alajbegović 6.9 F
51' Esmir Bajraktarević for Armin Gigović
51' Benjamin Tahirović for Ivan Šunjić
51' Ermin Mahmić for Edin Džeko
75' Haris Tabaković for Sead Kolašinac
75' Amar Memić for Nikola Katić
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Bosnia and Herzegovina's Outlook
Last time out: lost vs United States (0-2).
- Edin Džeko (Forward, 40) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- Sead Kolašinac (Defender, 33) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.59 goals here.
- BTTS at 43% and Over 2.5 at 48% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The United States win line (61%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
- The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
- Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
60.7% Favourite
Win Probability
13.7%
92.6%
Advance to Knockout
55.6%
23.3%
Reach the Semis
1.4%
12.8%
Reach the Final
0.4%
6.75%
Champion Chance
0.06%
1.57 Stronger attack
xG per Match
0.60
Insight: Our model gives United States the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
United States
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Recent Form & Head to Head
L1-4
vs BelgiumW2-0
vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaL2-3
vs TurkeyW2-0
vs AustraliaW4-1
vs ParaguayUnited States and Bosnia and Herzegovina have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina end?
United States 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina (FT) in the Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Santa Clara, CA. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina right?
Yes. Our structural model made United States the pick at 61% (61/26/14), and the match finished united states win (2-0). The model called it.
When and where was United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina played?
Thursday, July 2, 2026, Santa Clara, CA. Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 61/26/14 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina in our dataset.