Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde (FT). Group H, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Uruguay at 60% — it missed.
Uruguay2-2Cape Verde (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group H tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Uruguay
Cape VerdeWe made Uruguay our pick at 60%; it finished 2-2 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Uruguay Cape Verde Uruguay and Cape Verde shared a 2-2 draw in Group H at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Kevin Pina opened the scoring on 21'. Later, Maximiliano Araújo levelled it at 1-1 on 44'. Soon after, Agustín Canobbio, set up by Maximiliano Araújo, edged Uruguay in front on 45'. Then Hélio Varela levelled it at 2-2 on 61'.
Uruguay controlled the ball with 66% possession and 16 shots to Cape Verde's 7. An expected-goals figure of 2.28 to 0.77 says the margin understated how one-sided this was. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Uruguay generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Uruguay the 60% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Uruguay 60%, Draw 26%, Cape Verde 13%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Uruguay Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Uruguay and Cape Verde drew 2-2 in their World Cup 2026 Group H clash. The four goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a disallowed effort, three bookings, and eight substitutions.
Uruguay Sidny Lopes Cabral YELLOW Rodrigo Bentancur YELLOW Kevin Pina GOAL Maximiliano Araújo GOAL Agustín Canobbio Assist: Maximiliano Araújo GOAL Telmo Arcanjo for Deroy Duarte SUB Mathías Olivera YELLOW Garry Rodrigues for Hélio Varela SUB Benchimol for Nuno da Costa SUB Hélio Varela GOAL Maximiliano Araújo Goal cancelled VAR Manuel Ugarte for Nicolás De La Cruz SUB Federico Viñas for Darwin Núñez SUB Kevin Pina for Laros Duarte SUB Jamiro Monteiro for Yannick Semedo SUB Maximiliano Araújo for Brian Rodríguez SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Uruguay vs Cape Verde in this World Cup 2026 Group H clash. Uruguay set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Cape Verde in a 4-1-4-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Kevin Pina, Maximiliano Araújo, and Agustín Canobbio scored from the starting XI.
Uruguay vs Cape Verde Uruguay 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Cape Verde 4-1-4-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Uruguay's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Spain (0-1). Live-form lens has them at 62%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Cape Verde's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Argentina (2-3). Live-form lens: 13%.
The model expects roughly 2.46 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Uruguay the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Uruguay Cape Verde1 meeting on record between Uruguay and Cape Verde.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde |
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