Uruguay 0-1 Spain (FT). Group H, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Spain at 54% — it called it.
Uruguay0-1Spain (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group H tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Uruguay
SpainWe made Spain our pick at 54%, and that's how it finished (0-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Uruguay Spain Spain edged past Uruguay 1-0 in Group H at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. Álex Baena, set up by Marcos Llorente, opened the scoring on 42'.
Spain controlled the ball with 67% possession and 6 shots to Uruguay's 5. An expected-goals figure of 0.20 to 0.86 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Spain the 54% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Uruguay 19%, Draw 28%, Spain 54%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Uruguay Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Spain beat Uruguay 1-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group H clash. The only goal came before the break, in a first half that also brought one red card, four bookings, and nine substitutions.
Uruguay Álex Baena Assist: Marcos Llorente GOAL Manuel Ugarte for Nicolás De La Cruz SUB Fernando Muslera for Sergio Rochet SUB Álex Baena YELLOW Juan Manuel Sanabria YELLOW Federico Valverde for Federico Viñas SUB Guillermo Varela YELLOW Pedri for Fabián Ruiz SUB Mikel Merino for Dani Olmo SUB Álex Baena for Yéremy Pino SUB Juan Manuel Sanabria for Brian Rodríguez SUB Lamine Yamal for Nico Williams SUB Mikel Oyarzabal for Ferran Torres SUB Nicolás De La Cruz YELLOW Agustín Canobbio RED Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Uruguay vs Spain in this World Cup 2026 Group H clash. Uruguay set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Spain in a 4-3-3, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Álex Baena scored from the starting XI.
Uruguay vs Spain Uruguay 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Spain 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Uruguay's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Spain (0-1). Live-form lens has them at 9%, a 10pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Spain's OutlookLast time out: won vs Argentina (1-0). Live-form lens: 67% (13pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.65 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Spain the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Uruguay Spain11 meetings on record between Uruguay and Spain.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Uruguay 0-1 Spain |
| 2013 | Spain 2-1 Uruguay |
| 2013 | Spain 3-1 Uruguay |
| 2005 | Spain 2-0 Uruguay |
| 1995 | Spain 2-2 Uruguay |
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