Argentina's Outlook
Their last outing: a loss vs Spain (0-1).
- Lionel Messi (Forward, 39) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- Nicolás Otamendi (Defender, 38) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
Argentina 3-2 Cape Verde (AET). Round of 32, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Argentina at 75% — it called it.
Argentina vs Cape Verde Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
Argentina3-2Cape Verde (AET) in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
Argentina97%Advance
29%Semi
17%Final
9%Champion
Cape Verde29%Advance
0%Semi
0%Final
0%Champion
Our model called it
We made Argentina our pick at 75%, and that's how it finished (3-2). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Final Result AET
Argentina Cape Verde
Full-time Score
Model called it
3 AET 2
Argentina Cape Verde
Model pick: Argentina at 75%. Called it. Full breakdown
AET · model called it Match stats
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
Argentina edged past Cape Verde 3-2 in Round of 32 at World Cup 2026, Matchday 32. Lionel Messi, set up by Lisandro Martínez, opened the scoring on 29'. Later, Deroy Duarte, set up by Ryan Mendes, levelled it at 1-1 on 59'. Lisandro Martínez, set up by Alexis Mac Allister, restored Argentina's lead on 93'. Then Sidny Lopes Cabral levelled it at 2-2 on 103'. Soon after, an own goal restored Argentina's lead on 111'.
Argentina controlled the ball with 64% possession and 22 shots to Cape Verde's 16. An expected-goals figure of 2.16 to 0.45 says the margin understated how one-sided this was. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Argentina generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Argentina the 75% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Argentina 75%, Draw 18%, Cape Verde 6%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
Argentina AET 3 - 2
Cape Verde
xG 2.16 vs 0.45
22
Total shots
16 10
Shots on goal
5 64%
Possession
36% 8
Corners
8 13
Fouls
12 92%
Pass accuracy
86% 3
Saves
8 5
Shots outside box
5 7
Blocked shots
6 15
Shots inside box
6 7
Shots outside box
10 3
Offsides
2 849
Total passes
476 1
Yellow cards
1 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
Argentina beat Cape Verde 3-2 in their World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. The five goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought two bookings and 11 substitutions.
Argentina 3 - 2 AET
Cape Verde
5 Goals
2 Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards
11 Substitutions
7 Key Moments
29' Lionel Messi Assist: Lisandro Martínez GOAL
Lionel Messi Assist: Lisandro Martínez GOAL 59' Deroy Duarte Assist: Ryan Mendes GOAL
Deroy Duarte Assist: Ryan Mendes GOAL 63' Thiago Almada for Nicolás González SUB
Thiago Almada for Nicolás González SUB 63' Lautaro Martínez for Julián Álvarez SUB
Lautaro Martínez for Julián Álvarez SUB 67' Nuno da Costa for Dailon Livramento SUB
Nuno da Costa for Dailon Livramento SUB 67' Laros Duarte for Jamiro Monteiro SUB
Laros Duarte for Jamiro Monteiro SUB 68' Kevin Pina YELLOW
Kevin Pina YELLOW 80' Jovane Cabral for Hélio Varela SUB
Jovane Cabral for Hélio Varela SUB 80' Ryan Mendes for Willy Semedo SUB
Ryan Mendes for Willy Semedo SUB 84' Rodrigo de Paul for Leandro Paredes SUB
Rodrigo de Paul for Leandro Paredes SUB 86' Facundo Medina for Nicolás Tagliafico SUB
Facundo Medina for Nicolás Tagliafico SUB 93' Lisandro Martínez Assist: Alexis Mac Allister GOAL
Lisandro Martínez Assist: Alexis Mac Allister GOAL 100' Kevin Pina for Gilson Benchimol SUB
Kevin Pina for Gilson Benchimol SUB 100' Deroy Duarte for Yannick Semedo SUB
Deroy Duarte for Yannick Semedo SUB 103' Sidny Lopes Cabral GOAL
Sidny Lopes Cabral GOAL 104' Nahuel Molina for Gonzalo Montiel SUB
Nahuel Molina for Gonzalo Montiel SUB 111' Diney GOAL
Diney GOAL 115' Gonzalo Montiel YELLOW
Gonzalo Montiel YELLOW Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Argentina vs Cape Verde in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. Argentina set up in a 4-4-2 and Cape Verde in a 4-1-4-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Lionel Messi, Deroy Duarte, and Lisandro Martínez scored from the starting XI.
Argentina vs Cape Verde Argentina 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
23 Emiliano Martinez 6.7 GK
Defence
13 Cristian Romero 7.2 CB
6 Lisandro Martínez 7.3 CB
26 Nahuel Molina 6.8 RB
25 Facundo Medina 7.0 CB
Midfield
7 Rodrigo de Paul 7.0 CM
20 Alexis Mac Allister 6.9 CM
16 Thiago Almada 6.7 AM
24 Enzo Fernández 7.2 CM
Attack
10 Lionel Messi 9.2 RW
22 Lautaro Martínez 6.7 CF
63' Nicolás González for Thiago Almada
63' Julián Álvarez for Lautaro Martínez
84' Leandro Paredes for Rodrigo de Paul
86' Nicolás Tagliafico for Facundo Medina
104' Gonzalo Montiel for Nahuel Molina
Cape Verde 4-1-4-1 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Vozinha 7.7 GK
Defence
22 Steven Moreira 6.5 RB
4 Pico 7.4 CB
3 Diney 7.6 CB
13 Sidny Lopes Cabral 6.8 RB
Midfield
14 Deroy Duarte 6.9 CM
15 Laros Duarte 6.7 DM
6 Kevin Pina 7.1 DM
Attack
21 Nuno da Costa 6.9 CF
7 Jovane Cabral 6.7 LW
20 Ryan Mendes 6.9 LW
67' Dailon Livramento for Nuno da Costa
67' Jamiro Monteiro for Laros Duarte
80' Hélio Varela for Jovane Cabral
80' Willy Semedo for Ryan Mendes
100' Gilson Benchimol for Kevin Pina
100' Yannick Semedo for Deroy Duarte
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Cape Verde's Outlook
Last time out: lost vs Argentina (2-3). Over 2.5 at 59% means the model expects this to stay open, which suits teams comfortable in transitions.
- Ryan Mendes (Forward, 36) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- Vozinha (Goalkeeper, 40) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 3.05 goals here.
- BTTS at 37% and Over 2.5 at 59% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The Argentina win line (75%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
- The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
- Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
75.5% Favourite
Win Probability
6.4%
96.6%
Advance to Knockout
29.5%
28.7%
Reach the Semis
0.3%
16.6%
Reach the Final
0.1%
9.17%
Champion Chance
0.01%
2.00 Stronger attack
xG per Match
0.90
Insight: Our model gives Argentina the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Argentina
Cape Verde
Recent Form & Head to Head
Argentina and Cape Verde have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did Argentina vs Cape Verde end?
Argentina 3-2 Cape Verde (AET) in the Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Miami Gardens, FL. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get Argentina vs Cape Verde right?
Yes. Our structural model made Argentina the pick at 75% (75/18/6), and the match finished argentina win (3-2). The model called it.
When and where was Argentina vs Cape Verde played?
Friday, July 3, 2026, Miami Gardens, FL. Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 75/18/6 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between Argentina and Cape Verde?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between Argentina and Cape Verde in our dataset.