Colombia 1-0 DR Congo (FT). Group K, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Colombia at 50% — it called it.
Colombia1-0DR Congo (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group K tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Colombia
DR CongoWe made Colombia our pick at 50%, and that's how it finished (1-0). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Colombia DR Congo Colombia edged past DR Congo 1-0 in Group K at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Daniel Muñoz, set up by Juan Fernando Quintero, opened the scoring on 76'.
Colombia controlled the ball with 64% possession and 20 shots to DR Congo's 8. An expected-goals figure of 1.03 to 0.39 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Colombia the 50% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Colombia 50%, Draw 30%, DR Congo 20%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Colombia Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Colombia beat DR Congo 1-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group K clash. The only goal arrived after the restart, in a second half that also brought three bookings and eight substitutions.
Colombia Ngal'ayel Mukau for Noah Sadiki SUB Jhon Lucumí YELLOW Cédric Bakambu for Simon Banza SUB Luis Suárez for Jhon Córdoba SUB James Rodríguez for Juan Fernando Quintero SUB Arthur Masuaku for Joris Kayembe SUB Edo Kayembe for Charles Pickel SUB Daniel Muñoz Assist: Juan Fernando Quintero GOAL Jhon Arias for Richard Ríos SUB Samuel Moutoussamy for Nathanaël Mbuku SUB Charles Pickel YELLOW Jefferson Lerma YELLOW Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Colombia vs DR Congo in this World Cup 2026 Group K clash. Colombia set up in a 4-3-3 and DR Congo in a 5-3-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Daniel Muñoz scored from the starting XI.
Colombia vs DR Congo Colombia 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
DR Congo 5-3-2 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Colombia's OutlookTheir last outing: a draw vs Switzerland (0-0). Live-form lens has them at 66%, a 16pp split from the structural read worth noting.
DR Congo's OutlookLast time out: lost vs England (1-2). Live-form lens: 11% (9pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.35 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Colombia the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Colombia DR Congo1 meeting on record between Colombia and DR Congo.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Colombia 1-0 DR Congo |
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