Colombia 0-0 Portugal (FT). Group K, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Portugal at 45% — it missed.
Colombia0-0Portugal (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group K tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Colombia
PortugalWe made Portugal our pick at 45%; it finished 0-0 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Colombia Portugal Colombia and Portugal played out a goalless draw in Group K at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. The shot counts finished 24 to 13.
Colombia controlled the ball with 55% possession and 24 shots to Portugal's 13. An expected-goals figure of 1.63 to 0.69 says the margin understated how one-sided this was. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Portugal the 45% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Colombia 25%, Draw 30%, Portugal 45%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Colombia Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Colombia and Portugal played out a goalless draw in their World Cup 2026 Group K clash. The match brought a disallowed effort, a booking, and ten substitutions.
Colombia Rúben Neves for João Neves SUB João Cancelo for Diogo Dalot SUB Jefferson Lerma for Richard Ríos SUB Jhon Córdoba for Luis Suárez SUB João Félix for Rafael Leão SUB Vitinha for Samú Costa SUB Jhon Arias for Kevin Castaño SUB James Rodríguez for Juan Fernando Quintero SUB Gustavo Puerta YELLOW Santiago Arias for Daniel Muñoz SUB Davinson Sánchez Goal Disallowed - offside VAR Nuno Mendes for Matheus Nunes SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Colombia vs Portugal in this World Cup 2026 Group K clash. Colombia set up in a 4-3-3 and Portugal in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below.
Colombia vs Portugal Colombia 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Portugal 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Colombia's OutlookTheir last outing: a draw vs Switzerland (0-0). Live-form lens has them at 38%, a 13pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Portugal's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Spain (0-1). Live-form lens: 33% (12pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.47 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Portugal the edge, fractionally ahead on five of six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Colombia Portugal1 meeting on record between Colombia and Portugal.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Colombia 0-0 Portugal |
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