Curaçao 0-2 Ivory Coast (FT). Group E, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Ivory Coast at 60% — it called it.
Curaçao0-2Ivory Coast (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group E tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Curaçao
Ivory CoastWe made Ivory Coast our pick at 60%, and that's how it finished (0-2). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Curaçao Ivory Coast Ivory Coast beat Curaçao 2-0 in Group E at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. Nicolas Pépé, set up by Yan Diomande, opened the scoring on 7'. Later, Nicolas Pépé, set up by Ibrahim Sangaré, doubled the lead on 64'.
Ivory Coast controlled the ball with 63% possession and 7 shots to Curaçao's 11. An expected-goals figure of 0.50 to 1.31 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Ivory Coast the 60% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Curaçao 13%, Draw 27%, Ivory Coast 60%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Curaçao Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Ivory Coast beat Curaçao 2-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group E clash. The two goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought three bookings and ten substitutions.
Curaçao Nicolas Pépé Assist: Yan Diomande GOAL Nicolas Pépé YELLOW Amad Diallo for Christ Inao Oulaï SUB Livano Comenencia for Jeremy Antonisse SUB Nicolas Pépé Assist: Ibrahim Sangaré GOAL Yan Diomande for Bazoumana Touré SUB Nicolas Pépé for Elye Wahi SUB Ange-Yoan Bonny for Oumar Diakité SUB Juninho Bacuna YELLOW Deveron Fonville for Tyrese Noslin SUB Juriën Gaari for Gervane Kastaneer SUB Franck Kessié for Jean Michaël Seri SUB Gervane Kastaneer YELLOW Jürgen Locadia for Brandley Kuwas SUB Joshua Brenet for Shurandy Sambo SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Curaçao vs Ivory Coast in this World Cup 2026 Group E clash. Curaçao set up in a 5-4-1 and Ivory Coast in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Nicolas Pépé scored from the starting XI.
Curaçao vs Ivory Coast Curaçao 5-4-1 Confirmed XI 
Ivory Coast 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Curaçao's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Ivory Coast (0-2). Live-form lens has them at 15%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Ivory Coast's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Norway (1-2). Live-form lens: 60%.
The model expects roughly 2.4 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Ivory Coast the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Curaçao Ivory Coast1 meeting on record between Curaçao and Ivory Coast.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Curaçao 0-2 Ivory Coast |
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