Iraq 1-4 Norway (FT). Group I, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Norway at 55% — it called it.
Iraq1-4Norway (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group I tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Iraq
NorwayWe made Norway our pick at 55%, and that's how it finished (1-4). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Iraq Norway Norway beat Iraq 4-1 in Group I at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. Erling Haaland, set up by David Møller Wolfe, opened the scoring on 29'. Later, Aymen Hussein, set up by Amir Al-Ammari, levelled it at 1-1 on 39'. Soon after, Erling Haaland restored Norway's lead on 43'. Then Leo Østigård, set up by Martin Ødegaard, added a third on 76'. Later, an own goal added a fourth on 90'.
Norway controlled the ball with 61% possession and 12 shots to Iraq's 11. An expected-goals figure of 0.77 to 2.53 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Norway generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Norway the 55% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Iraq 16%, Draw 28%, Norway 55%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Iraq Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Norway beat Iraq 4-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group I clash. The five goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a booking and ten substitutions.
Iraq Erling Haaland Assist: David Møller Wolfe GOAL Aymen Hussein Assist: Amir Al-Ammari GOAL Erling Haaland GOAL Ali Al-Hamadi for Marko Farji SUB Zaid Ismail for Zidane Iqbal SUB Ali Jasim for Ahmed Qasem SUB Hussein Ali for Mustafa Saadoon SUB David Møller Wolfe for Leo Østigård SUB Alexander Sørloth for Oscar Bobb SUB Fredrik Aursnes for Kristian Thorstvedt SUB Antonio Nusa for Andreas Schjelderup SUB Leo Østigård Assist: Martin Ødegaard GOAL Ibrahim Bayesh SUB Martin Ødegaard for Patrick Berg SUB Zaid Tahseen YELLOW Aymen Hussein GOAL Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Iraq vs Norway in this World Cup 2026 Group I clash. Iraq set up in a 4-4-2 and Norway in a 4-3-3, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Erling Haaland and Aymen Hussein scored from the starting XI.
Iraq vs Norway Iraq 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Norway 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Iraq's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Senegal (0-5). Live-form lens has them at 13%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Norway's OutlookLast time out: lost vs England (1-2). Live-form lens: 59%.
The model expects roughly 2.38 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Norway the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
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