Ivory Coast's Outlook
Their last outing: a loss vs Norway (1-2).
- Franck Kessié (Midfielder, 30) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
- Jean Michaël Seri (Midfielder, 35) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Summary
Ivory Coast 1-2 Norway (FT). Round of 32, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Norway at 38% — it called it.
Ivory Coast vs Norway Result, Stats & How Our Model Did
Ivory Coast1-2Norway (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
How Our Model Did
Where they go from here
Ivory Coast76%Advance
4%Semi
1%Final
0%Champion
Norway74%Advance
6%Semi
2%Final
1%Champion
Our model called it
We made Norway our pick at 38%, and that's how it finished (1-2). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
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Ivory Coast Norway
Full-time Score
Model called it
1 FT 2
Ivory Coast Norway
Model pick: Norway at 38%. Called it. Full breakdown
FT · model called it Match stats
100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges
Match Report
Norway edged past Ivory Coast 2-1 in Round of 32 at World Cup 2026, Matchday 32. Antonio Nusa, set up by Martin Ødegaard, opened the scoring on 39'. Later, Amad Diallo, set up by Nicolas Pépé, levelled it at 1-1 on 74'. Erling Haaland, set up by Patrick Berg, restored Norway's lead on 86'.
Norway controlled the ball with 53% possession and 9 shots to Ivory Coast's 14. An expected-goals figure of 1.36 to 2.02 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Norway the 38% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Ivory Coast 30%, Draw 32%, Norway 38%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Match Stats
Ivory Coast FT 1 - 2
Norway
xG 1.36 vs 2.02
14
Total shots
9 5
Shots on goal
4 47%
Possession
53% 14
Corners
3 6
Fouls
7 85%
Pass accuracy
88% 1
Saves
4 9
Shots outside box
2 1
Blocked shots
3 10
Shots inside box
8 4
Shots outside box
1 2
Offsides
2 401
Total passes
473 0
Yellow cards
1 Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Match Timeline
Norway beat Ivory Coast 2-1 in their World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. The three goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a booking and eight substitutions.
Ivory Coast 1 - 2 FT
Norway
3 Goals
1 Yellow Cards
0 Red Cards
8 Substitutions
4 Key Moments
39' Antonio Nusa Assist: Martin Ødegaard GOAL
Antonio Nusa Assist: Martin Ødegaard GOAL 45' Antonio Nusa YELLOW
Antonio Nusa YELLOW 60' Christ Inao Oulaï for Amad Diallo SUB
Christ Inao Oulaï for Amad Diallo SUB 60' Ange-Yoan Bonny for Elye Wahi SUB
Ange-Yoan Bonny for Elye Wahi SUB 71' Alexander Sørloth for Oscar Bobb SUB
Alexander Sørloth for Oscar Bobb SUB 71' Antonio Nusa for Andreas Schjelderup SUB
Antonio Nusa for Andreas Schjelderup SUB 74' Amad Diallo Assist: Nicolas Pépé GOAL
Amad Diallo Assist: Nicolas Pépé GOAL 83' Marcus Pedersen for Fredrik Aursnes SUB
Marcus Pedersen for Fredrik Aursnes SUB 86' Erling Haaland Assist: Patrick Berg GOAL
Erling Haaland Assist: Patrick Berg GOAL 87' Nicolas Pépé for Oumar Diakité SUB
Nicolas Pépé for Oumar Diakité SUB 90' Ghislain Konan for Bazoumana Touré SUB
Ghislain Konan for Bazoumana Touré SUB 90' Yan Diomande for Evann Guessand SUB
Yan Diomande for Evann Guessand SUB Lineups
Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Ivory Coast vs Norway in this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 clash. Ivory Coast set up in a 4-3-3 and Norway in a 4-3-3, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Antonio Nusa and Erling Haaland scored from the starting XI.
Ivory Coast vs Norway Ivory Coast 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Yahia Fofana 7.3 GK
Defence
3 Ghislain Konan 7.0 LB
7 Odilon Kossounou 6.8 CB
20 Emmanuel Agbadou 7.0 CB
17 Guéla Doué 6.9 RB
Midfield
8 Franck Kessié 6.9 CM
18 Ibrahim Sangaré 7.3 DM
26 Christ Inao Oulaï 7.1 CM
Attack
19 Nicolas Pépé 7.2 RW
9 Ange-Yoan Bonny 6.5 CF
11 Yan Diomande 7.5 LW
60' Amad Diallo for Christ Inao Oulaï
60' Elye Wahi for Ange-Yoan Bonny
87' Oumar Diakité for Nicolas Pépé
90' Bazoumana Touré for Ghislain Konan
90' Evann Guessand for Yan Diomande
Norway 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Goalkeeper
1 Ørjan Nyland 6.7 GK
Defence
3 Kristoffer Ajer 6.8 CB
16 Marcus Pedersen 6.9 RB
5 David Møller Wolfe 7.1 LB
17 Torbjørn Heggem 6.9 CB
Midfield
10 Martin Ødegaard 7.2 AM
8 Sander Berge 6.8 DM
6 Patrick Berg 6.6 DM
20 Antonio Nusa 6.6 LM
Attack
9 Erling Haaland 8.4 F
7 Alexander Sørloth 6.3 CF
71' Oscar Bobb for Alexander Sørloth
71' Andreas Schjelderup for Antonio Nusa
83' Fredrik Aursnes for Marcus Pedersen
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Match Analysis
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Norway's Outlook
Last time out: lost vs England (1-2).
- Alexander Sørloth (Forward, 31) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
- Ørjan Nyland (Goalkeeper, 36) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Key Matchups
The model expects roughly 2.31 goals here.
- BTTS at 47% and Over 2.5 at 41% point to how open the model expects this to be.
- The Norway win line (38%) is the single most likely team outcome.
Our Take
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
- The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
- Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.
Tale of the Tape
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
29.9%
Win Probability
Favourite 38.3%
76.1%
Advance to Knockout
74.1%
4%
Reach the Semis
6.2%
1.4%
Reach the Final
2.4%
0.40%
Champion Chance
0.81%
1.40
xG per Match
Stronger attack 2.10
Insight: Our model gives Norway the edge, fractionally ahead on five of six measures: a higher win probability, a clearer path to the semis and stronger odds of reaching the final.
Key Players
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Ivory Coast
Norway
Recent Form & Head to Head
Ivory Coast and Norway have never met at senior level. This is their first competitive meeting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How did Ivory Coast vs Norway end?
Ivory Coast 1-2 Norway (FT) in the Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Arlington, TX. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.
Did the model get Ivory Coast vs Norway right?
Yes. Our structural model made Norway the pick at 38% (30/32/38), and the match finished norway win (1-2). The model called it.
When and where was Ivory Coast vs Norway played?
Tuesday, June 30, 2026, Arlington, TX. Round of 32 stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.
How does the model do over a full tournament?
One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 30/32/38 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.
What was the head-to-head record between Ivory Coast and Norway?
This was the first recorded competitive meeting between Ivory Coast and Norway in our dataset.