Summary

Jordan 1-3 Argentina (FT). Group J, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Argentina at 76% — it called it.

Jordan vs Argentina Result, Stats & How Our Model Did

Jordan1-3Argentina (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group J tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.

How Our Model Did

Where they go from here

Jordan

22%Advance

0%Semi

0%Final

0%Champion

Argentina

97%Advance

29%Semi

17%Final

9%Champion

Our model called it

We made Argentina our pick at 76%, and that's how it finished (1-3). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.

Model pick: Argentina 76% Structural: 6/18/76 Actual: Argentina win (1-3)

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Final Result FT

Sun, Jun 28 · Arlington · Match 3 · Group J

Jordan

Argentina

Full-time Score Model called it

1 FT 3

Jordan Argentina

Model pick: Argentina at 76%. Called it. Full breakdown

FT · model called it Match stats

What the model weighs

Very Hot IndoorArlington conditions

2314.9 / 0 kmTravel, JOR / ARG

5 days eachRest before kickoff

Neutral venueNeither side at home

175 mArlington elevation

100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges

Match Report

Argentina beat Jordan 3-1 in Group J at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. Giovani Lo Celso opened the scoring on 19'. Later, Lautaro Martínez doubled the lead on 31'. Musa Al-Taamari, set up by Ehsan Haddad, pulled one back for Jordan on 55'. Then Lionel Messi added a third on 80'.

Argentina controlled the ball with 73% possession and 12 shots to Jordan's 5. An expected-goals figure of 0.74 to 2.14 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Argentina generated the clearer chances by some distance.

Our structural model had made Argentina the 76% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Jordan 6%, Draw 18%, Argentina 76%. See our methodology for how the model is built.

Match Stats Compare Sites

Match Stats

Jordan

FT 1 - 3

Argentina

xG 0.74 vs 2.14

Total shots

Shots on goal

27%

Possession

73%

Corners

Fouls

80%

Pass accuracy

92%

Saves

Shots outside box

Blocked shots

Shots inside box

Shots outside box

Offsides

277

Total passes

780

Yellow cards

Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.

Match Timeline

Argentina beat Jordan 3-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group J clash. The four goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought three bookings and ten substitutions.

Jordan

1 - 3 FT

Argentina

4 Goals

3 Yellow Cards

0 Red Cards

10 Substitutions

7 Key Moments

17'

Mohannad Abu Taha YELLOW

19'

Giovani Lo Celso GOAL

31'

Lautaro Martínez GOAL

46'

Odeh Al-Fakhouri for Mahmoud Al-Mardi SUB

46'

Ali Azaizeh for Musa Al-Taamari SUB

55'

Musa Al-Taamari Assist: Ehsan Haddad GOAL

60'

Giovani Lo Celso for Thiago Almada SUB

60'

Lautaro Martínez for Lionel Messi SUB

61'

Nico Paz for Alexis Mac Allister SUB

64'

Yazan Al-Arab YELLOW

71'

Giuliano Simeone for Valentín Barco SUB

76'

Nizar Al-Rashdan for Amer Jamous SUB

80'

Lionel Messi GOAL

82'

Julián Álvarez for José Manuel López SUB

90'

Husam Abu Dahab for Saleem Obaid SUB

90'

Ali Olwan for Mohammad Abu Zrayq SUB

90'

Mohammad Abu Zrayq YELLOW

Lineups

Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Jordan vs Argentina in this World Cup 2026 Group J clash. Jordan set up in a 3-4-2-1 and Argentina in a 4-1-3-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Giovani Lo Celso and Lautaro Martínez scored from the starting XI.

Jordan vs Argentina

Jordan 3-4-2-1 Confirmed XI

Ehsan Haddad Key player · 6.6

Yazan Al-Arab Key player · 6.0

Yazeed Abulaila Key player · 6.5

Goalkeeper

1 Yazeed Abulaila 6.5 GK

Defence

23 Ehsan Haddad 6.6 RB

5 Yazan Al-Arab 6.0 CB

3 Abdallah Nasib 6.3 CB

20 Mohannad Abu Taha 6.8 LB

4 Husam Abu Dahab 6.3 CB

Midfield

21 Nizar Al-Rashdan 6.7 DM

8 Noor Al-Rawabdeh 6.7 CM

Attack

9 Ali Olwan 7.0 CF

24 Ali Azaizeh 6.7 RW

11 Odeh Al-Fakhouri 6.6 LW

46' Mahmoud Al-Mardi for Odeh Al-Fakhouri

46' Musa Al-Taamari for Ali Azaizeh

76' Amer Jamous for Nizar Al-Rashdan

90' Saleem Obaid for Husam Abu Dahab

90' Mohammad Abu Zrayq for Ali Olwan

Argentina 4-1-3-2 Confirmed XI

Nicolás Otamendi Key player · 6.8

Lautaro Martínez Key player · 6.7

Leandro Paredes Key player · 7.0

Goalkeeper

23 Emiliano Martinez 6.7 GK

Defence

19 Nicolás Otamendi 6.8 CB

3 Nicolás Tagliafico 6.8 LB

2 Marcos Senesi 6.7 CB

Midfield

5 Leandro Paredes 7.0 DM

11 Giovani Lo Celso 7.9 AM

14 Exequiel Palacios 6.8 CM

18 Nico Paz 6.7 AM

Attack

22 Lautaro Martínez 6.7 CF

9 Julián Álvarez 6.2 CF

17 Giuliano Simeone 6.1 CF

60' Thiago Almada for Giovani Lo Celso

60' Lionel Messi for Lautaro Martínez

61' Alexis Mac Allister for Nico Paz

71' Valentín Barco for Giuliano Simeone

82' José Manuel López for Julián Álvarez

Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off

Match Analysis

Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.

Jordan's Outlook

Their last outing: a loss vs Argentina (1-3). Live-form lens has them at 3%, broadly in line with the structural model.

Musa Al-Taamari (Forward, 29) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Ehsan Haddad (Defender, 32) is one of the names the squad model leans on.

Argentina's Outlook

Last time out: lost vs Spain (0-1). Over 2.5 at 59% means the model expects this to stay open, which suits teams comfortable in transitions. Live-form lens: 86% (10pp divergence from structural).

Lionel Messi (Forward, 39) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Nicolás Otamendi (Defender, 38) carries real weight in the squad metrics.

Key Matchups

The model expects roughly 3.08 goals here.

BTTS at 37% and Over 2.5 at 59% point to how open the model expects this to be.
The Argentina win line (76%) is the single most likely team outcome.

Our Take

No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.

The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.

Tale of the Tape

Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.

Jordan AFC

Group J, 4th

CONMEBOL Argentina

Group J, 1st

6.2%

Win Probability

Favourite 75.9%

22.5%

Advance to Knockout

96.6%

0.2%

Reach the Semis

28.7%

Reach the Final

16.6%

0.01%

Champion Chance

9.17%

0.63

xG per Match

Stronger attack 2.00

Insight: Our model gives Argentina the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.

View full match stats Group J standings & all matches

Group J: standings & all matches

Key Players

The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.

Jordan

Musa Al-Taamari C

Forward · 29 · Stade Rennais FC (FRA)

93Caps

24Goals

Ehsan Haddad

Defender · 32 · Al Hussein SC (JOR)

91Caps

2Goals

Mahmoud Al-Mardi

Forward · 33 · Al Hussein SC (JOR)

88Caps

8Goals

Yazan Al-Arab

Defender · 30 · FC Seoul (KOR)

81Caps

3Goals

Argentina

Lionel Messi C

Forward · 39 · Inter Miami CF (USA)

200Caps

120Goals

Nicolás Otamendi

Defender · 38 · SL Benca (POR)

133Caps

8Goals

Rodrigo de Paul

Midfielder · 32 · Inter Miami CF (USA)

88Caps

2Goals

Lautaro Martínez

Forward · 29 · FC Internazionale Milano (ITA)

78Caps

37Goals

Recent Form & Head to Head

L1-3

vs Argentina

L1-2

vs Algeria

L1-3

vs Austria

L0-2

vs Colombia

L1-4

vs Switzerland

View match analysis

L0-1

vs Spain

W2-1

vs England

W3-1

vs Switzerland

W3-2

vs Egypt

W3-2

vs Cape Verde

View match analysis

1 meeting on record between Jordan and Argentina.

Year	Score
2026	Jordan 1-3 Argentina

View match analysis

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did Jordan vs Argentina end?

Jordan 1-3 Argentina (FT) in the Group J stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Arlington. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.

Did the model get Jordan vs Argentina right?

Yes. Our structural model made Argentina the pick at 76% (6/18/76), and the match finished argentina win (1-3). The model called it.

When and where was Jordan vs Argentina played?

Sunday, June 28, 2026, Arlington. Group J stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.

How does the model do over a full tournament?

One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 6/18/76 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.

What was the head-to-head record between Jordan and Argentina?

Before this match, Jordan and Argentina had met 1 time: 0 Jordan wins, 1 Argentina win, 0 draws.