Norway 3-2 Senegal (FT). Group I, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Norway at 35% — it called it.
Norway3-2Senegal (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group I tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Norway
SenegalWe made Norway our pick at 35%, and that's how it finished (3-2). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Norway Senegal Norway edged past Senegal 3-2 in Group I at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Marcus Pedersen opened the scoring on 43'. Moments later, Erling Haaland, set up by Martin Ødegaard, doubled the lead on 48'. Soon after, Ismaïla Sarr, set up by Sadio Mané, pulled one back for Senegal on 53'. Moments later, Erling Haaland, set up by Patrick Berg, added a third on 58'. Later, Ismaïla Sarr, set up by Nicolas Jackson, pulled one back for Senegal on 90'.
Senegal controlled the ball with 58% possession and 16 shots to Norway's 13. An expected-goals figure of 2.10 to 1.70 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Norway the 35% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Norway 35%, Draw 32%, Senegal 33%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Norway Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Norway beat Senegal 3-2 in their World Cup 2026 Group I clash. The five goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought ten substitutions.
Norway Julian Ryerson for Marcus Pedersen SUB Marcus Pedersen GOAL Fredrik Aursnes for Patrick Berg SUB Erling Haaland Assist: Martin Ødegaard GOAL Ismaïla Sarr Assist: Sadio Mané GOAL El Hadji Malick Diouf for Ismail Jakobs SUB Pape Gueye for Ibrahim Mbaye SUB Erling Haaland Assist: Patrick Berg GOAL Édouard Mendy for Mory Diaw SUB Lamine Camara for Pathé Ciss SUB Antonio Nusa for Andreas Schjelderup SUB Kalidou Koulibaly for Pape Matar Sarr SUB Torbjørn Heggem for Leo Østigård SUB Alexander Sørloth for Oscar Bobb SUB Ismaïla Sarr Assist: Nicolas Jackson GOAL Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Norway vs Senegal in this World Cup 2026 Group I clash. Norway set up in a 4-3-3 and Senegal in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Erling Haaland and Ismaïla Sarr scored from the starting XI.
Norway vs Senegal Norway 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Senegal 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Norway's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs England (1-2). Live-form lens has them at 46%, a 11pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Senegal's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Belgium (2-3). Live-form lens: 27% (6pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.34 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Norway the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Norway Senegal2 meetings on record between Norway and Senegal.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Norway 3-2 Senegal |
| 2006 | Senegal 2-1 Norway |
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