Summary

Scotland 0-1 Morocco (FT). Group C, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Morocco at 49% — it called it.

Scotland vs Morocco Result, Stats & How Our Model Did

Scotland0-1Morocco (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group C tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.

How Our Model Did

Where they go from here

Scotland

64%Advance

2%Semi

1%Final

0%Champion

Morocco

89%Advance

11%Semi

5%Final

2%Champion

Our model called it

We made Morocco our pick at 49%, and that's how it finished (0-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.

Model pick: Morocco 49% Structural: 21/30/49 Actual: Morocco win (0-1)

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Final Result FT

Fri, Jun 19 · Foxborough · Match 2 · Group C

Scotland

Morocco

Full-time Score Model called it

0 FT 1

Scotland Morocco

Model pick: Morocco at 49%. Called it. Full breakdown

FT · model called it Match stats

What the model weighs

WarmFoxborough conditions

0 / 273.9 kmTravel, SCO / MOR

6 days eachRest before kickoff

Neutral venueNeither side at home

40 mFoxborough elevation

100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges

Match Report

Morocco edged past Scotland 1-0 in Group C at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Ismael Saibari, set up by Brahim Díaz, opened the scoring on 2'.

Morocco controlled the ball with 59% possession and 12 shots to Scotland's 6. An expected-goals figure of 0.54 to 0.95 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.

Our structural model had made Morocco the 49% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Scotland 21%, Draw 30%, Morocco 49%. See our methodology for how the model is built.

Match Stats Compare Sites

Match Stats

Scotland

FT 0 - 1

Morocco

xG 0.54 vs 0.95

Total shots

Shots on goal

41%

Possession

59%

Corners

Fouls

85%

Pass accuracy

90%

Saves

Shots outside box

Blocked shots

Shots inside box

Shots outside box

Offsides

454

Total passes

671

Yellow cards

Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.

Match Timeline

Morocco beat Scotland 1-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group C clash. The only goal came before the break, in a first half that also brought two bookings and nine substitutions.

Scotland

0 - 1 FT

Morocco

1 Goals

2 Yellow Cards

0 Red Cards

9 Substitutions

3 Key Moments

Ismael Saibari Assist: Brahim Díaz GOAL

23'

Issa Diop YELLOW

60'

Kieran Tierney for Ben Gannon-Doak SUB

65'

Andrew Robertson YELLOW

71'

Che Adams for Lyndon Dykes SUB

71'

Ryan Christie for Kenny McLean SUB

84'

Ismael Saibari for Soufiane Rahimi SUB

84'

Bilal El Khannouss for Chemsdine Talbi SUB

84'

Brahim Díaz for Ayoube Amaimouni SUB

89'

Nathan Patterson for Anthony Ralston SUB

89'

John McGinn for Ross Stewart SUB

90'

Azzedine Ounahi for Samir El Mourabet SUB

Lineups

Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Scotland vs Morocco in this World Cup 2026 Group C clash. Scotland set up in a 4-1-4-1 and Morocco in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Ismael Saibari scored from the starting XI.

Scotland vs Morocco

Scotland 4-1-4-1 Confirmed XI

Andrew Robertson Key player · 7.3

John McGinn Key player · 7.4

Scott McTominay Key player · 6.6

Goalkeeper

1 Angus Gunn 7.4 GK

Defence

3 Andrew Robertson 7.3 LB

6 Kieran Tierney LB

5 Grant Hanley 7.6 CB

13 Jack Hendry 7.1 CB

22 Nathan Patterson 6.9 RB

Midfield

11 Ryan Christie 6.7 AM

7 John McGinn 7.4 CM

19 Lewis Ferguson 7.6 M

4 Scott McTominay 6.6 DM

Attack

10 Che Adams 6.4 CF

60' Ben Gannon-Doak for Kieran Tierney

71' Lyndon Dykes for Che Adams

71' Kenny McLean for Ryan Christie

89' Anthony Ralston for Nathan Patterson

89' Ross Stewart for John McGinn

Morocco 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI

Achraf Hakimi Key player · 7.7

Bono Key player · 5.7

Azzedine Ounahi Key player · 6.7

Goalkeeper

1 Bono 5.7 GK

Defence

2 Achraf Hakimi 7.7 RB

14 Issa Diop CB

3 Noussair Mazraoui 6.7 RB

18 Chadi Riad 6.7 CB

Midfield

8 Azzedine Ounahi 6.7 CM

11 Ismael Saibari 7.2 AM

23 Bilal El Khannouss 8.9 M

24 Neil El Aynaoui 6.6 CM

6 Ayyoub Bouaddi CM

Attack

10 Brahim Díaz 6.4 RW

84' Soufiane Rahimi for Ismael Saibari

84' Chemsdine Talbi for Bilal El Khannouss

84' Ayoube Amaimouni for Brahim Díaz

90' Samir El Mourabet for Azzedine Ounahi

Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off

Match Analysis

Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.

Scotland's Outlook

Their last outing: a loss vs Brazil (0-3). Live-form lens has them at 22%, broadly in line with the structural model.

Andrew Robertson (Defender, 32) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
John McGinn (Midfielder, 32) is one of the names the squad model leans on.

Morocco's Outlook

Last time out: lost vs France (0-2). Live-form lens: 48%.

Achraf Hakimi (Defender, 28) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Yassine Bounou (Goalkeeper, 35) carries real weight in the squad metrics.

Key Matchups

The model expects roughly 2.4 goals here.

BTTS at 46% and Over 2.5 at 43% point to how open the model expects this to be.
The Morocco win line (49%) is the single most likely team outcome.

Our Take

No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.

The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.

Tale of the Tape

Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.

Scotland UEFA

Group C, 3rd

CAF Morocco

Group C, 2nd

21.4%

Win Probability

Favourite 48.7%

64%

Advance to Knockout

88.6%

2.5%

Reach the Semis

11.4%

0.8%

Reach the Final

5.4%

0.23%

Champion Chance

2.26%

0.93

xG per Match

Stronger attack 1.93

Insight: Our model gives Morocco the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.

View full match stats Group C standings & all matches

Group C: standings & all matches

Key Players

The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.

Scotland

Andrew Robertson C

Defender · 32 · Liverpool FC (ENG)

95Caps

4Goals

John McGinn

Midfielder · 32 · Aston Villa FC (ENG)

87Caps

21Goals

Craig Gordon

Goalkeeper · 44 · Heart Of Midlothian FC (SCO)

84Caps

0Goals

Scott McTominay

Midfielder · 30 · SSC Napoli (ITA)

71Caps

15Goals

Morocco

Achraf Hakimi C

Defender · 28 · Paris Saint-Germain (FRA)

97Caps

11Goals

Yassine Bounou

Goalkeeper · 35 · Al Hilal SC (KSA)

91Caps

0Goals

Sofyan Amrabat

Midfielder · 30 · Real Betis (ESP)

75Caps

0Goals

Ayoub El Kaabi

Forward · 33 · Olympiacos FC (GRE)

71Caps

36Goals

Recent Form & Head to Head

L0-3

vs Brazil

L0-1

vs Morocco

W1-0

vs Haiti

W4-0

vs Bolivia

W4-1

vs Curaçao

View match analysis

L0-2

vs France

W3-0

vs Canada

D1-1

vs Netherlands

W4-2

vs Haiti

W1-0

vs Scotland

View match analysis

2 meetings on record between Scotland and Morocco.

Year	Score
2026	Scotland 0-1 Morocco
1998	Scotland 0-3 Morocco

View match analysis

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did Scotland vs Morocco end?

Scotland 0-1 Morocco (FT) in the Group C stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Foxborough. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.

Did the model get Scotland vs Morocco right?

Yes. Our structural model made Morocco the pick at 49% (21/30/49), and the match finished morocco win (0-1). The model called it.

When and where was Scotland vs Morocco played?

Friday, June 19, 2026, Foxborough. Group C stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.

How does the model do over a full tournament?

One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 21/30/49 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.

What was the head-to-head record between Scotland and Morocco?

Before this match, Scotland and Morocco had met 2 times: 0 Scotland wins, 2 Morocco wins, 0 draws.