Senegal 5-0 Iraq (FT). Group I, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Senegal at 54% — it called it.
Senegal5-0Iraq (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group I tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Senegal
IraqWe made Senegal our pick at 54%, and that's how it finished (5-0). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Senegal Iraq Senegal beat Iraq 5-0 in Group I at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. Habib Diarra, set up by Abdoulaye Seck, opened the scoring on 4'. Later, Ismaïla Sarr, set up by Lamine Camara, doubled the lead on 56'. Soon after, Pape Gueye, set up by Ismaïla Sarr, added a third on 59'. Then Pape Gueye, set up by Iliman Ndiaye, added a fourth on 71'. Later, Iliman Ndiaye, set up by Pape Gueye, made it 5-0 on 82'.
Senegal controlled the ball with 69% possession and 27 shots to Iraq's 6. An expected-goals figure of 3.02 to 0.18 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Senegal generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Senegal the 54% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Senegal 54%, Draw 29%, Iraq 17%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Senegal Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Senegal beat Iraq 5-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group I clash. The five goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought one red card, four bookings, and ten substitutions.
Senegal Habib Diarra Assist: Abdoulaye Seck GOAL Rebin Sulaka RED Ahmed Qasem for Manaf Younis SUB Abdoulaye Seck YELLOW Ahmed Basil for Jalal Hachim SUB Ismaïla Sarr Assist: Lamine Camara GOAL Habib Diarra for Pape Gueye SUB Ibrahim Mbaye for Iliman Ndiaye SUB Lamine Camara for Nicolas Jackson SUB Ali Jasim SUB Ali Al-Hamadi SUB Abdoulaye Seck for Pathé Ciss SUB Pape Gueye Assist: Ismaïla Sarr GOAL Zidane Iqbal for Kevin Yakob SUB Pape Gueye Assist: Iliman Ndiaye GOAL Amir Al-Ammari YELLOW Ismaïla Sarr for Assane Diao SUB Pape Gueye YELLOW Iliman Ndiaye Assist: Pape Gueye GOAL Merchas Doski YELLOW Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Senegal vs Iraq in this World Cup 2026 Group I clash. Senegal set up in a 4-3-3 and Iraq in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Habib Diarra and Ismaïla Sarr scored from the starting XI.
Senegal vs Iraq Senegal 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Iraq 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Senegal's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Belgium (2-3). Live-form lens has them at 54%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Iraq's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Senegal (0-5). Live-form lens: 18%.
The model expects roughly 2.35 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Senegal the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
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