Summary

Sweden 5-1 Tunisia (FT). Group F, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Sweden at 45% — it called it.

Sweden vs Tunisia Result, Stats & How Our Model Did

Sweden5-1Tunisia (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group F tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.

How Our Model Did

Where they go from here

Sweden

66%Advance

4%Semi

1%Final

0%Champion

Tunisia

37%Advance

1%Semi

0%Final

0%Champion

Our model called it

We made Sweden our pick at 45%, and that's how it finished (5-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.

Model pick: Sweden 45% Structural: 45/31/23 Actual: Sweden win (5-1)

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Final Result FT

Mon, Jun 15 · Guadalupe · Match 1 · Group F

Sweden

Tunisia

Full-time Score Model called it

5 FT 1

Sweden Tunisia

Model pick: Sweden at 45%. Called it. Full breakdown

FT · model called it Match stats

What the model weighs

Very HotGuadalupe conditions

0 / 0 kmTravel, SWE / TUN

30 days eachRest before kickoff

Neutral venueNeither side at home

540 mGuadalupe elevation

100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges

Match Report

Sweden beat Tunisia 5-1 in Group F at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. Yasin Ayari opened the scoring on 7'. Later, Alexander Isak, set up by Viktor Gyökeres, doubled the lead on 30'. Omar Rekik, set up by Hannibal Mejbri, pulled one back for Tunisia on 43'. Then Viktor Gyökeres, set up by Alexander Isak, added a third on 59'. Later, Mattias Svanberg, set up by Alexander Isak, added a fourth on 84'. Moments later, Yasin Ayari, set up by Lucas Bergvall, made it 5-1 on 90'.

Tunisia controlled the ball with 51% possession and 6 shots to Sweden's 13. An expected-goals figure of 1.36 to 0.28 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Sweden generated the clearer chances by some distance.

Our structural model had made Sweden the 45% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Sweden 45%, Draw 31%, Tunisia 23%. See our methodology for how the model is built.

Match Stats Compare Sites

Match Stats

Sweden

FT 5 - 1

Tunisia

xG 1.36 vs 0.28

Total shots

Shots on goal

49%

Possession

51%

Corners

Fouls

79%

Pass accuracy

79%

Saves

Shots outside box

Blocked shots

Shots inside box

Shots outside box

Offsides

353

Total passes

364

Yellow cards

Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.

Match Timeline

Sweden beat Tunisia 5-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group F clash. The six goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a booking and ten substitutions.

Sweden

5 - 1 FT

Tunisia

6 Goals

1 Yellow Cards

0 Red Cards

10 Substitutions

7 Key Moments

Yasin Ayari GOAL

30'

Alexander Isak Assist: Viktor Gyökeres GOAL

43'

Omar Rekik Assist: Hannibal Mejbri GOAL

54'

Rani Khedira YELLOW

59'

Viktor Gyökeres Assist: Alexander Isak GOAL

65'

Gabriel Gudmundsson for Elliot Stroud SUB

65'

Benjamin Nygren for Lucas Bergvall SUB

72'

Elias Saad for Sebastian Tounekti SUB

72'

Yan Valery for Hadj Mahmoud SUB

72'

Ellyes Skhiri for Elias Achouri SUB

83'

Rani Khedira for Ismaël Gharbi SUB

84'

Anis Ben Slimane for Firas Chaouat SUB

84'

Jesper Karlström for Mattias Svanberg SUB

84'

Mattias Svanberg Assist: Alexander Isak GOAL

90'

Alexander Isak for Anthony Elanga SUB

90'

Alexander Bernhardsson for Daniel Svensson SUB

90'

Yasin Ayari Assist: Lucas Bergvall GOAL

Lineups

Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Sweden vs Tunisia in this World Cup 2026 Group F clash. Sweden set up in a 3-4-1-2 and Tunisia in a 3-5-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Yasin Ayari, Alexander Isak, and Omar Rekik scored from the starting XI.

Sweden vs Tunisia

Sweden 3-4-1-2 Confirmed XI

Victor Lindelöf Key player · 6.5

Alexander Isak Key player · 7.4

Viktor Gyökeres Key player · 7.2

Goalkeeper

23 Kristoffer Nordfeldt 6.4 GK

Defence

3 Victor Lindelöf 6.5 CB

2 Gustaf Lagerbielke 6.7 CB

Midfield

5 Gabriel Gudmundsson 7.3 M

16 Jesper Karlström 6.4 DM

4 Isak Hien 6.8 D

18 Yasin Ayari 2 7.8 CM

Attack

9 Alexander Isak 7.4 CF

17 Viktor Gyökeres 7.2 CF

10 Benjamin Nygren 6.8 RW

21 Alexander Bernhardsson 6.5 RW

65' Elliot Stroud for Gabriel Gudmundsson

65' Lucas Bergvall for Benjamin Nygren

84' Mattias Svanberg for Jesper Karlström

90' Anthony Elanga for Alexander Isak

90' Daniel Svensson for Alexander Bernhardsson

Tunisia 3-5-2 Confirmed XI

Ellyes Skhiri Key player · 6.5

Montassar Talbi Key player · 6.5

Ali Abdi Key player · 5.6

Goalkeeper

1 Abdelmouhib Chamakh 4.3 GK

Defence

20 Yan Valery 5.7 RB

3 Montassar Talbi 6.5 CB

2 Ali Abdi 5.6 LB

4 Omar Rekik 7.1 CB

21 Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida 6.8 LB

Midfield

17 Ellyes Skhiri 6.5 DM

13 Rani Khedira 6.0 DM

25 Anis Ben Slimane 6.3 CM

10 Hannibal Mejbri 7.0 AM

Attack

8 Elias Saad 6.6 LW

72' Sebastian Tounekti for Elias Saad

72' Hadj Mahmoud for Yan Valery

72' Elias Achouri for Ellyes Skhiri

83' Ismaël Gharbi for Rani Khedira

84' Firas Chaouat for Anis Ben Slimane

Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off

Match Analysis

Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.

Sweden's Outlook

Their last outing: a loss vs France (0-3). Live-form lens has them at 39%, a 6pp split from the structural read worth noting.

Victor Lindelöf (Defender, 32) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Alexander Isak (Forward, 27) is one of the names the squad model leans on.

Tunisia's Outlook

Last time out: lost vs Netherlands (1-3). Live-form lens: 32% (9pp divergence from structural).

Ellyes Skhiri (Midfielder, 31) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Montassar Talbi (Defender, 28) carries real weight in the squad metrics.

Key Matchups

The model expects roughly 2.28 goals here.

BTTS at 44% and Over 2.5 at 40% point to how open the model expects this to be.
The Sweden win line (45%) is the single most likely team outcome.

Our Take

No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.

The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.

Tale of the Tape

Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.

Sweden

Group F, 3rd

CAF Tunisia

Group F, 4th

45.3% Favourite

Win Probability

23.5%

65.6%

Advance to Knockout

36.8%

3.9%

Reach the Semis

0.7%

1.4%

Reach the Final

0.2%

0.41%

Champion Chance

0.07%

0.93 Stronger attack

xG per Match

0.27

Insight: Our model gives Sweden the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.

View full match stats Group F standings & all matches

Group F: standings & all matches

Key Players

The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.

Sweden

Victor Lindelöf C

Defender · 32 · Aston Villa FC (ENG)

77Caps

3Goals

Alexander Isak

Forward · 27 · Liverpool FC (ENG)

59Caps

18Goals

Mattias Svanberg

Midfielder · 27 · VfL Wolfsburg (GER)

41Caps

3Goals

Viktor Gyökeres

Forward · 28 · Arsenal FC (ENG)

34Caps

21Goals

Tunisia

Ellyes Skhiri C

Midfielder · 31 · Eintracht Frankfurt (GER)

84Caps

4Goals

Montassar Talbi

Defender · 28 · FC Lorient (FRA)

65Caps

4Goals

Dylan Bronn

Defender · 31 · Servette FC (SUI)

52Caps

2Goals

Ali Abdi

Defender · 33 · OGC Nice (FRA)

47Caps

7Goals

Recent Form & Head to Head

L0-3

vs France

D1-1

vs Japan

L1-5

vs Netherlands

W5-1

vs Tunisia

D2-2

vs Greece

View match analysis

L1-3

vs Netherlands

L0-4

vs Japan

L1-5

vs Sweden

L0-5

vs Belgium

L0-1

vs Austria

View match analysis

5 meetings on record between Sweden and Tunisia.

Year	Score
2026	Sweden 5-1 Tunisia
2003	Tunisia 1-0 Sweden
1999	Tunisia 0-1 Sweden
1992	Tunisia 0-1 Sweden
1976	Tunisia 1-1 Sweden

View match analysis

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did Sweden vs Tunisia end?

Sweden 5-1 Tunisia (FT) in the Group F stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Guadalupe. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.

Did the model get Sweden vs Tunisia right?

Yes. Our structural model made Sweden the pick at 45% (45/31/23), and the match finished sweden win (5-1). The model called it.

When and where was Sweden vs Tunisia played?

Monday, June 15, 2026, Guadalupe. Group F stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.

How does the model do over a full tournament?

One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 45/31/23 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.

What was the head-to-head record between Sweden and Tunisia?

Before this match, Sweden and Tunisia had met 5 times: 3 Sweden wins, 1 Tunisia win, 1 draw.