Summary

Turkey 3-2 United States (FT). Group D, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was United States at 43% — it missed.

Turkey vs United States Result, Stats & How Our Model Did

Turkey3-2United States (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group D tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.

How Our Model Did

Where they go from here

Turkey

75%Advance

8%Semi

3%Final

1%Champion

United States

93%Advance

23%Semi

13%Final

7%Champion

Our model missed

We made United States our pick at 43%; it finished 3-2 (turkey win). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.

Model pick: United States 43% Structural: 26/30/43 Actual: Turkey win (3-2)

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Final Result FT

Fri, Jun 26 · Inglewood · Match 3 · Group D

Turkey

United States

Full-time Score Model missed

3 FT 2

Turkey United States

Model picked United States at 43%. Missed (actual: Turkey win). Full breakdown

FT · model missed Match stats

What the model weighs

Warm Dry IndoorInglewood conditions

504.6 / 1553.1 kmTravel, TUR / UNI

6 days eachRest before kickoff

Neutral venueNeither side at home

30 mInglewood elevation

100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges

Match Report

Turkey edged past United States 3-2 in Group D at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. Auston Trusty, set up by Sebastian Berhalter, opened the scoring on 3'. Moments later, Arda Güler, set up by Barış Alper Yılmaz, levelled it at 1-1 on 10'. Barış Alper Yılmaz, set up by Orkun Kökçü, edged Turkey in front on 31'. Then Sebastian Berhalter levelled it at 2-2 on 49'. Later, Kaan Ayhan restored Turkey's lead on 90'.

United States controlled the ball with 52% possession and 18 shots to Turkey's 9. An expected-goals figure of 3.21 to 2.01 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Turkey generated the clearer chances by some distance.

Our structural model had made United States the 43% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Turkey 26%, Draw 30%, United States 43%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.

Match Stats Compare Sites

Match Stats

Turkey

FT 3 - 2

United States

xG 3.21 vs 2.01

Total shots

Shots on goal

48%

Possession

52%

Corners

Fouls

77%

Pass accuracy

85%

Saves

Shots outside box

Blocked shots

Shots inside box

Shots outside box

Offsides

435

Total passes

469

Yellow cards

Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.

Match Timeline

Turkey came from behind to beat United States 3-2 in their World Cup 2026 Group D clash. The five goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a booking and ten substitutions.

Turkey

3 - 2 FT

United States

5 Goals

1 Yellow Cards

0 Red Cards

10 Substitutions

6 Key Moments

Auston Trusty Assist: Sebastian Berhalter GOAL

10'

Arda Güler Assist: Barış Alper Yılmaz GOAL

19'

Sebastian Berhalter YELLOW

31'

Barış Alper Yılmaz Assist: Orkun Kökçü GOAL

49'

Sebastian Berhalter GOAL

58'

Timothy Weah for Christian Pulisic SUB

76'

Giovanni Reyna for Sergiño Dest SUB

77'

Brenden Aaronson for Alejandro Zendejas SUB

77'

Joe Scally for Alex Freeman SUB

84'

Zeki Çelik for Çağlar Söyüncü SUB

84'

Kenan Yıldız for Can Uzun SUB

86'

Weston McKennie for Malik Tillman SUB

88'

Orkun Kökçü for Kaan Ayhan SUB

90'

Oğuz Aydın for Mert Müldür SUB

90'

Barış Alper Yılmaz for İrfan Can Kahveci SUB

90'

Kaan Ayhan GOAL

Lineups

Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Turkey vs United States in this World Cup 2026 Group D clash. Turkey set up in a 4-3-3 and United States in a 4-5-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Auston Trusty, Arda Güler, and Barış Alper Yılmaz scored from the starting XI.

Turkey vs United States

Turkey 4-3-3 Confirmed XI

Zeki Çelik Key player · 7.0

Orkun Kökçü Key player · 6.3

Uğurcan Çakır Key player · 6.6

Goalkeeper

23 Uğurcan Çakır 6.6 GK

Defence

14 Abdülkerim Bardakcı 7.1 CB

2 Zeki Çelik 7.0 RB

15 Ozan Kabak 7.1 CB

13 Eren Elmalı 7.2 LB

Midfield

6 Orkun Kökçü 6.3 AM

5 Salih Özcan 7.0 DM

8 Arda Güler 7.6 AM

Attack

21 Barış Alper Yılmaz 6.8 RW

11 Kenan Yıldız 7.1 LW

24 Oğuz Aydın 7.1 LW

84' Çağlar Söyüncü for Zeki Çelik

84' Can Uzun for Kenan Yıldız

88' Kaan Ayhan for Orkun Kökçü

90' Mert Müldür for Oğuz Aydın

90' İrfan Can Kahveci for Barış Alper Yılmaz

United States 4-5-1 Confirmed XI

Weston McKennie Key player · 7.0

Brenden Aaronson Key player · 6.3

Matt Turner Key player · 5.9

Goalkeeper

1 Matt Turner 5.9 GK

Defence

12 Miles Robinson 6.6 CB

6 Auston Trusty 7.0 CB

23 Joe Scally 6.5 RB

22 Mark McKenzie 6.1 CB

Midfield

8 Weston McKennie 7.0 CM

21 Timothy Weah 5.8 RM

7 Giovanni Reyna 6.4 AM

11 Brenden Aaronson 6.3 AM

14 Sebastian Berhalter 7.5 CM

Attack

9 Ricardo Pepi 6.1 CF

58' Christian Pulisic for Timothy Weah

76' Sergiño Dest for Giovanni Reyna

77' Alejandro Zendejas for Brenden Aaronson

77' Alex Freeman for Joe Scally

86' Malik Tillman for Weston McKennie

Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off

Match Analysis

Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.

Turkey's Outlook

Their last outing: a win vs United States (3-2). Live-form lens has them at 48%, a 22pp split from the structural read worth noting.

Hakan Çalhanoğlu (Midfielder, 32) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Kaan Ayhan (Midfielder, 32) is one of the names the squad model leans on.

United States's Outlook

Last time out: lost vs Belgium (1-4). Live-form lens: 25% (18pp divergence from structural).

Christian Pulisic (Forward, 28) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Tim Ream (Defender, 39) carries real weight in the squad metrics.

Key Matchups

The model expects roughly 2.47 goals here.

BTTS at 49% and Over 2.5 at 45% point to how open the model expects this to be.
The United States win line (43%) is the single most likely team outcome.

Our Take

No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.

The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.

Tale of the Tape

Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.

Turkey UEFA

Group D, 4th

CONCACAF United States

Group D, 1st

26.4%

Win Probability

Favourite 43.2%

75.1%

Advance to Knockout

92.6%

7.8%

Reach the Semis

23.3%

3.1%

Reach the Final

12.8%

1.06%

Champion Chance

6.75%

2.10 Stronger attack

xG per Match

1.57

Insight: Our model gives United States the edge, fractionally ahead on five of six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.

View full match stats Group D standings & all matches

Group D: standings & all matches

Key Players

The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.

Turkey

HÇ

Hakan Çalhanoğlu C

Midfielder · 32 · FC Internazionale Milano (ITA)

107Caps

22Goals

Kaan Ayhan

Midfielder · 32 · Galatasaray SK (TUR)

73Caps

5Goals

Merih Demiral

Defender · 28 · Al Ahli FC (KSA)

64Caps

6Goals

ZÇ

Zeki Çelik

Defender · 29 · AS Roma (ITA)

62Caps

3Goals

United States

Christian Pulisic C

Forward · 28 · AC Milan (ITA)

87Caps

33Goals

Tim Ream

Defender · 39 · Charlotte FC (USA)

83Caps

1Goals

Weston McKennie

Midfielder · 28 · Juventus FC (ITA)

67Caps

12Goals

Brenden Aaronson

Forward · 26 · Leeds United FC (ENG)

58Caps

9Goals

Recent Form & Head to Head

W3-2

vs United States

L0-1

vs Paraguay

L0-2

vs Australia

W2-1

vs Venezuela

W4-0

vs North Macedonia

View match analysis

L1-4

vs Belgium

W2-0

vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

L2-3

vs Turkey

W2-0

vs Australia

W4-1

vs Paraguay

View match analysis

6 meetings on record between Turkey and United States.

Year	Score
2026	United States 2-3 Turkey
2025	United States 1-2 Turkey
2014	United States 2-1 Turkey
2010	United States 2-1 Turkey
2003	Turkey 2-1 United States

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did Turkey vs United States end?

Turkey 3-2 United States (FT) in the Group D stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Inglewood. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.

Did the model get Turkey vs United States right?

No. Our structural model made United States the pick at 43% (26/30/43), but it finished turkey win (3-2). The model missed this one, and we'd rather say so than dress it up.

When and where was Turkey vs United States played?

Friday, June 26, 2026, Inglewood. Group D stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.

How does the model do over a full tournament?

One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 26/30/43 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.

What was the head-to-head record between Turkey and United States?

Before this match, Turkey and United States had met 6 times: 3 Turkey wins, 2 United States wins, 1 draw.