Summary

United States 2-0 Australia (FT). Group D, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was United States at 52% — it called it.

United States vs Australia Result, Stats & How Our Model Did

United States2-0Australia (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group D tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.

How Our Model Did

Where they go from here

United States

93%Advance

23%Semi

13%Final

7%Champion

Australia

55%Advance

3%Semi

1%Final

0%Champion

Our model called it

We made United States our pick at 52%, and that's how it finished (2-0). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.

Model pick: United States 52% Structural: 52/29/19 Actual: United States win (2-0)

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Final Result FT

Fri, Jun 19 · Seattle · Match 2 · Group D

United States

Australia

Full-time Score Model called it

2 FT 0

United States Australia

Model pick: United States at 52%. Called it. Full breakdown

FT · model called it Match stats

What the model weighs

MildSeattle conditions

1553.1 / 195.6 kmTravel, UNI / AUS

7 / 6 daysRest before kickoff

Neutral venueNeither side at home

5 mSeattle elevation

100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges

Match Report

United States beat Australia 2-0 in Group D at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. An own goal put United States ahead on 11'. Later, Alex Freeman doubled the lead on 43'.

United States controlled the ball with 62% possession and 10 shots to Australia's 5. An expected-goals figure of 1.30 to 0.44 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.

Our structural model had made United States the 52% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was United States 52%, Draw 29%, Australia 19%. See our methodology for how the model is built.

Match Stats Compare Sites

Match Stats

United States

FT 2 - 0

Australia

xG 1.30 vs 0.44

Total shots

Shots on goal

62%

Possession

38%

Corners

Fouls

85%

Pass accuracy

72%

Saves

Shots outside box

Blocked shots

Shots inside box

Shots outside box

Offsides

524

Total passes

308

Yellow cards

Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.

Match Timeline

United States beat Australia 2-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group D clash. All two goals came before the break, in a first half that also brought seven bookings and ten substitutions.

United States

2 - 0 FT

Australia

2 Goals

7 Yellow Cards

0 Red Cards

10 Substitutions

9 Key Moments

11'

Cameron Burgess GOAL

16'

Jordan Bos YELLOW

32'

Alessandro Circati YELLOW

43'

Alex Freeman GOAL

46'

Cameron Burgess for Jason Geria SUB

46'

Nishan Velupillay for Connor Metcalfe SUB

46'

Mohamed Touré for Nestory Irankunda SUB

56'

Antonee Robinson YELLOW

61'

Mathew Leckie for Cristian Volpato SUB

74'

Ricardo Pepi for Sebastian Berhalter SUB

78'

Paul Okon-Engstler for Jackson Irvine SUB

80'

Sergiño Dest for Joe Scally SUB

80'

Antonee Robinson for Auston Trusty SUB

88'

Harry Souttar YELLOW

89'

Folarin Balogun YELLOW

89'

Jacob Italiano YELLOW

90'

Chris Richards YELLOW

90'

Folarin Balogun for Haji Wright SUB

90'

Weston McKennie for Giovanni Reyna SUB

Lineups

Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for United States vs Australia in this World Cup 2026 Group D clash. United States set up in a 3-5-2 and Australia in a 5-4-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Alex Freeman scored from the starting XI.

United States vs Australia

United States 3-5-2 Confirmed XI

Tim Ream Key player · 7.0

Weston McKennie Key player · 7.0

Antonee Robinson Key player · 7.2

Goalkeeper

24 Matt Freese 6.8 GK

Defence

13 Tim Ream 7.0 CB

5 Antonee Robinson 7.2 LB

2 Sergiño Dest 6.7 RB

3 Chris Richards 7.3 CB

16 Alex Freeman 7.7 RB

Midfield

8 Weston McKennie 7.0 CM

4 Tyler Adams 7.0 M

17 Malik Tillman 7.0 AM

Attack

20 Folarin Balogun 6.4 CF

9 Ricardo Pepi 6.1 CF

74' Sebastian Berhalter for Ricardo Pepi

80' Joe Scally for Sergiño Dest

80' Auston Trusty for Antonee Robinson

90' Haji Wright for Folarin Balogun

90' Giovanni Reyna for Weston McKennie

Australia 5-4-1 Confirmed XI

Mathew Leckie Key player · 6.3

Harry Souttar Key player · 7.0

Aiden O'Neill Key player · 6.9

Goalkeeper

18 Patrick Beach 7.9 GK

Defence

21 Cameron Burgess 6.3 CB

19 Harry Souttar 7.0 CB

5 Jordan Bos 6.9 LB

3 Alessandro Circati 7.5 CB

4 Jacob Italiano 6.5 RB

Midfield

13 Aiden O'Neill 6.9 DM

24 Paul Okon-Engstler 6.8 DM

Attack

7 Mathew Leckie 6.3 LW

9 Mohamed Touré 6.5 CF

23 Nishan Velupillay 6.3 LW

46' Jason Geria for Cameron Burgess

46' Connor Metcalfe for Nishan Velupillay

46' Nestory Irankunda for Mohamed Touré

61' Cristian Volpato for Mathew Leckie

78' Jackson Irvine for Paul Okon-Engstler

Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off

Match Analysis

Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.

United States's Outlook

Their last outing: a loss vs Belgium (1-4). Live-form lens has them at 46%, a 6pp split from the structural read worth noting.

Christian Pulisic (Forward, 28) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Tim Ream (Defender, 39) is one of the names the squad model leans on.

Australia's Outlook

Last time out: drew vs Egypt (1-1). Live-form lens: 26% (7pp divergence from structural).

Mathew Ryan (Goalkeeper, 34) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Aziz Behich (Defender, 36) carries real weight in the squad metrics.

Key Matchups

The model expects roughly 2.48 goals here.

BTTS at 46% and Over 2.5 at 45% point to how open the model expects this to be.
The United States win line (52%) is the single most likely team outcome.

Our Take

No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.

The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.

Tale of the Tape

Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.

United States CONCACAF

Group D, 1st

AFC Australia

Group D, 2nd

52% Favourite

Win Probability

19.3%

92.6%

Advance to Knockout

55.2%

23.3%

Reach the Semis

2.6%

12.8%

Reach the Final

0.8%

6.75%

Champion Chance

0.28%

1.57 Stronger attack

xG per Match

0.60

Insight: Our model gives United States the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.

View full match stats Group D standings & all matches

Group D: standings & all matches

Key Players

The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.

United States

Christian Pulisic C

Forward · 28 · AC Milan (ITA)

87Caps

33Goals

Tim Ream

Defender · 39 · Charlotte FC (USA)

83Caps

1Goals

Weston McKennie

Midfielder · 28 · Juventus FC (ITA)

67Caps

12Goals

Brenden Aaronson

Forward · 26 · Leeds United FC (ENG)

58Caps

9Goals

Australia

Mathew Ryan C

Goalkeeper · 34 · Levante UD (ESP)

104Caps

0Goals

Aziz Behich

Defender · 36 · Melbourne City FC (AUS)

85Caps

3Goals

Jackson Irvine

Midfielder · 33 · FC St. Pauli (GER)

83Caps

14Goals

Mathew Leckie

Forward · 35 · Melbourne City FC (AUS)

81Caps

14Goals

Recent Form & Head to Head

L1-4

vs Belgium

W2-0

vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

L2-3

vs Turkey

W2-0

vs Australia

W4-1

vs Paraguay

View match analysis

D1-1

vs Egypt

D0-0

vs Paraguay

L0-2

vs United States

W2-0

vs Turkey

D1-1

vs Switzerland

View match analysis

5 meetings on record between United States and Australia.

Year	Score
2026	United States 2-0 Australia
2025	United States 2-1 Australia
2010	Australia 1-3 United States
1998	United States 0-0 Australia
1992	United States 0-1 Australia

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did United States vs Australia end?

United States 2-0 Australia (FT) in the Group D stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Seattle. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.

Did the model get United States vs Australia right?

Yes. Our structural model made United States the pick at 52% (52/29/19), and the match finished united states win (2-0). The model called it.

When and where was United States vs Australia played?

Friday, June 19, 2026, Seattle. Group D stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.

How does the model do over a full tournament?

One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 52/29/19 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.

What was the head-to-head record between United States and Australia?

Before this match, United States and Australia had met 5 times: 3 United States wins, 1 Australia win, 1 draw.