Summary

United States 4-1 Paraguay (FT). Group D, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was United States at 55% — it called it.

United States vs Paraguay Result, Stats & How Our Model Did

United States4-1Paraguay (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group D tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.

How Our Model Did

Where they go from here

United States

93%Advance

23%Semi

13%Final

7%Champion

Paraguay

46%Advance

2%Semi

0%Final

0%Champion

Our model called it

We made United States our pick at 55%, and that's how it finished (4-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.

Model pick: United States 55% Structural: 55/28/17 Actual: United States win (4-1)

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Final Result FT

Sat, Jun 13 · Inglewood · Match 1 · Group D

United States

Paraguay

Full-time Score Model called it

4 FT 1

United States Paraguay

Model pick: United States at 55%. Called it. Full breakdown

FT · model called it Match stats

What the model weighs

Warm Dry IndoorInglewood conditions

0 / 0 kmTravel, UNI / PAR

30 days eachRest before kickoff

Neutral venueNeither side at home

30 mInglewood elevation

100% Independent Structural · Live · Market No manufactured edges

Match Report

United States beat Paraguay 4-1 in Group D at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. An own goal put United States ahead on 7'. Later, Folarin Balogun, set up by Christian Pulisic, doubled the lead on 31'. Folarin Balogun, set up by Malik Tillman, added a third on 45'. Then Maurício, set up by Julio Enciso, pulled one back, making it 3-1 on 73'. Later, Giovanni Reyna, set up by Alex Freeman, added a fourth on 90'.

United States controlled the ball with 65% possession and 16 shots to Paraguay's 9. An expected-goals figure of 1.27 to 0.51 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.

Our structural model had made United States the 55% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was United States 55%, Draw 28%, Paraguay 17%. See our methodology for how the model is built.

Match Stats Compare Sites

Match Stats

United States

FT 4 - 1

Paraguay

xG 1.27 vs 0.51

Total shots

Shots on goal

65%

Possession

35%

Corners

Fouls

85%

Pass accuracy

72%

Saves

Shots outside box

Blocked shots

Shots inside box

Shots outside box

Offsides

596

Total passes

320

Yellow cards

Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.

Match Timeline

United States beat Paraguay 4-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group D clash. The five goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a disallowed effort, six bookings, and nine substitutions.

United States

4 - 1 FT

Paraguay

5 Goals

6 Yellow Cards

0 Red Cards

9 Substitutions

11 Key Moments

Damián Bobadilla GOAL

10'

Juan José Cáceres YELLOW

28'

Folarin Balogun Goal Disallowed - offside VAR

31'

Folarin Balogun Assist: Christian Pulisic GOAL

45'

Folarin Balogun Assist: Malik Tillman GOAL

46'

Damián Bobadilla for Maurício SUB

46'

Christian Pulisic for Sebastian Berhalter SUB

53'

Miguel Almirón YELLOW

59'

Tyler Adams YELLOW

62'

Antonio Sanabria for Álex Arce SUB

72'

Sergiño Dest for Timothy Weah SUB

72'

Folarin Balogun for Ricardo Pepi SUB

73'

Maurício Assist: Julio Enciso GOAL

79'

Diego Gómez YELLOW

79'

Miguel Almirón for Ramón Sosa SUB

79'

Juan José Cáceres for Gustavo Velázquez SUB

80'

Diego Gómez for Kaku SUB

82'

Malik Tillman for Giovanni Reyna SUB

88'

Álex Arce YELLOW

90'

Júnior Alonso YELLOW

90'

Giovanni Reyna Assist: Alex Freeman GOAL

Lineups

Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for United States vs Paraguay in this World Cup 2026 Group D clash. United States set up in a 4-1-2-3 and Paraguay in a 4-4-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Folarin Balogun scored from the starting XI.

United States vs Paraguay

United States 4-1-2-3 Confirmed XI

Christian Pulisic Key player · 7.1

Tim Ream Key player · 7.0

Weston McKennie Key player · 7.0

Goalkeeper

24 Matt Freese 6.8 GK

Defence

13 Tim Ream 7.0 CB

5 Antonee Robinson 7.2 LB

2 Sergiño Dest 6.7 RB

3 Chris Richards 7.3 CB

16 Alex Freeman 7.7 RB

Midfield

8 Weston McKennie 7.0 CM

4 Tyler Adams 7.0 M

17 Malik Tillman 7.0 AM

Attack

10 Christian Pulisic 7.1 RW

20 Folarin Balogun 2 6.4 CF

46' Sebastian Berhalter for Christian Pulisic

72' Timothy Weah for Sergiño Dest

72' Ricardo Pepi for Folarin Balogun

82' Giovanni Reyna for Malik Tillman

Paraguay 4-4-2 Confirmed XI

Gustavo Gómez Key player · 7.2

Miguel Almirón Key player · 5.9

Júnior Alonso Key player · 7.3

Goalkeeper

12 Orlando Gill 7.8 GK

Defence

15 Gustavo Gómez 7.2 CB

3 Omar Alderete 7.0 CB

6 Júnior Alonso 7.3 CB

4 Juan José Cáceres 7.5 RB

Midfield

14 Andrés Cubas 7.1 DM

19 Julio Enciso 6.7 AM

8 Diego Gómez 6.6 CM

16 Damián Bobadilla 6.8 CM

Attack

9 Antonio Sanabria CF

10 Miguel Almirón 5.9 RW

46' Maurício for Damián Bobadilla

62' Álex Arce for Antonio Sanabria

79' Ramón Sosa for Miguel Almirón

79' Gustavo Velázquez for Juan José Cáceres

80' Kaku for Diego Gómez

Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off

Match Analysis

Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.

United States's Outlook

Their last outing: a loss vs Belgium (1-4). Live-form lens has them at 44%, a 11pp split from the structural read worth noting.

Christian Pulisic (Forward, 28) is one of the names the squad model leans on.
Tim Ream (Defender, 39) is one of the names the squad model leans on.

Paraguay's Outlook

Last time out: lost vs France (0-1). Live-form lens: 27% (10pp divergence from structural).

Gustavo Gómez (Defender, 33) carries real weight in the squad metrics.
Miguel Almirón (Midfielder, 32) carries real weight in the squad metrics.

Key Matchups

The model expects roughly 2.49 goals here.

BTTS at 44% and Over 2.5 at 45% point to how open the model expects this to be.
The United States win line (55%) is the single most likely team outcome.

Our Take

No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.

The honest angle is the lens split, not a value claim.
Trust recent form over season-long structure? The live lens is the contrarian read, with the variance that implies.

Tale of the Tape

Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.

United States CONCACAF

Group D, 1st

CONMEBOL Paraguay

Group D, 3rd

55.3% Favourite

Win Probability

16.9%

92.6%

Advance to Knockout

46.4%

23.3%

Reach the Semis

1.7%

12.8%

Reach the Final

0.4%

6.75%

Champion Chance

0.15%

1.57 Stronger attack

xG per Match

0.33

Insight: Our model gives United States the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.

View full match stats Group D standings & all matches

Group D: standings & all matches

Key Players

The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.

United States

Christian Pulisic C

Forward · 28 · AC Milan (ITA)

87Caps

33Goals

Tim Ream

Defender · 39 · Charlotte FC (USA)

83Caps

1Goals

Weston McKennie

Midfielder · 28 · Juventus FC (ITA)

67Caps

12Goals

Brenden Aaronson

Forward · 26 · Leeds United FC (ENG)

58Caps

9Goals

Paraguay

Gustavo Gómez C

Defender · 33 · SE Palmeiras (BRA)

90Caps

4Goals

Miguel Almirón

Midfielder · 32 · Atlanta United FC (USA)

77Caps

10Goals

Júnior Alonso

Defender · 33 · Atlético Mineiro (BRA)

72Caps

3Goals

Antonio Sanabria

Forward · 30 · US Cremonese (ITA)

49Caps

7Goals

Recent Form & Head to Head

L1-4

vs Belgium

W2-0

vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

L2-3

vs Turkey

W2-0

vs Australia

W4-1

vs Paraguay

View match analysis

L0-1

vs France

D1-1

vs Germany

D0-0

vs Australia

W1-0

vs Turkey

L1-4

vs United States

View match analysis

10 meetings on record between United States and Paraguay.

Year	Score
2026	United States 4-1 Paraguay
2025	United States 2-1 Paraguay
2018	United States 1-0 Paraguay
2016	United States 1-0 Paraguay
2011	United States 0-1 Paraguay

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Frequently Asked Questions

How did United States vs Paraguay end?

United States 4-1 Paraguay (FT) in the Group D stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026, at Inglewood. Full stats, the timeline, and lineups are above.

Did the model get United States vs Paraguay right?

Yes. Our structural model made United States the pick at 55% (55/28/17), and the match finished united states win (4-1). The model called it.

When and where was United States vs Paraguay played?

Saturday, June 13, 2026, Inglewood. Group D stage of the FIFA World Cup 2026. A neutral venue for both sides.

How does the model do over a full tournament?

One match is one data point. The structural model reads each tie 55/28/17 and we publish every call, hits and misses alike, so the track record stays honest. See our methodology for how the model weighs squad strength, form, and ratings.

What was the head-to-head record between United States and Paraguay?

Before this match, United States and Paraguay had met 10 times: 6 United States wins, 2 Paraguay wins, 2 draws.