Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia (FT). Group K, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Colombia at 50% — it called it.
Uzbekistan1-3Colombia (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group K tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Uzbekistan
ColombiaWe made Colombia our pick at 50%, and that's how it finished (1-3). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Uzbekistan Colombia Colombia beat Uzbekistan 3-1 in Group K at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. Daniel Muñoz, set up by Luis Díaz, opened the scoring on 40'. Later, Abbosbek Fayzullaev levelled it at 1-1 on 60'. Soon after, Luis Díaz, set up by Gustavo Puerta, restored Colombia's lead on 65'. Then Jaminton Campaz, set up by Cucho Hernández, added a third on 90'.
Colombia controlled the ball with 61% possession and 15 shots to Uzbekistan's 8. An expected-goals figure of 1.14 to 1.61 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Colombia the 50% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Uzbekistan 20%, Draw 30%, Colombia 50%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Uzbekistan Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Colombia beat Uzbekistan 3-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group K clash. The four goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought two bookings and ten substitutions.
Uzbekistan Johan Mojica YELLOW Abdukodir Khusanov YELLOW Daniel Muñoz Assist: Luis Díaz GOAL Oston Urunov for Dostonbek Khamdamov SUB Sherzod Nasrullaev SUB Abbosbek Fayzullaev GOAL Luis Díaz Assist: Gustavo Puerta GOAL James Rodríguez for Jaminton Campaz SUB Abbosbek Fayzullaev for Azizbek Amonov SUB Rustam Ashurmatov for Jakhongir Urozov SUB Luis Suárez for Cucho Hernández SUB Gustavo Puerta for Richard Ríos SUB Luis Díaz for Andrés Gómez SUB Jhon Arias for Kevin Castaño SUB Eldor Shomurodov for Igor Sergeev SUB Jaminton Campaz Assist: Cucho Hernández GOAL Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Uzbekistan vs Colombia in this World Cup 2026 Group K clash. Uzbekistan set up in a 3-4-2-1 and Colombia in a 4-3-3, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Daniel Muñoz, Abbosbek Fayzullaev, and Luis Díaz scored from the starting XI.
Uzbekistan vs Colombia Uzbekistan 3-4-2-1 Confirmed XI 
Colombia 4-3-3 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Uzbekistan's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs DR Congo (1-3). Live-form lens has them at 16%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Colombia's OutlookLast time out: drew vs Switzerland (0-0). Live-form lens: 59% (9pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.35 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Colombia the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Uzbekistan Colombia1 meeting on record between Uzbekistan and Colombia.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia |
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