Haiti 0-1 Scotland (FT). Group C, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Scotland at 51% — it called it.
Haiti0-1Scotland (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group C tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Haiti
ScotlandWe made Scotland our pick at 51%, and that's how it finished (0-1). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Haiti Scotland Scotland edged past Haiti 1-0 in Group C at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. John McGinn opened the scoring on 28'.
Haiti controlled the ball with 54% possession and 15 shots to Scotland's 9. An expected-goals figure of 1.21 to 1.07 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Scotland the 51% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Haiti 19%, Draw 30%, Scotland 51%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Haiti Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Scotland beat Haiti 1-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group C clash. The only goal came before the break, in a first half that also brought four bookings and eight substitutions.
Haiti John McGinn GOAL Jean-Ricner Bellegarde YELLOW Aaron Hickey YELLOW Louicius Deedson for Josué Casimir SUB Ben Gannon-Doak for Ryan Christie SUB Aaron Hickey for Nathan Patterson SUB Che Adams for Lyndon Dykes SUB Wilson Isidor for Lenny Joseph SUB John McGinn for Findlay Curtis SUB Lawrence Shankland for Kenny McLean SUB Ruben Providence for Yassin Fortune SUB Findlay Curtis YELLOW Kenny McLean YELLOW Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Haiti vs Scotland in this World Cup 2026 Group C clash. Haiti set up in a 4-4-2 and Scotland in a 4-4-2, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. John McGinn scored from the starting XI.
Haiti vs Scotland Haiti 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Scotland 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Haiti's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Morocco (2-4). Live-form lens has them at 22%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Scotland's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Brazil (0-3). Live-form lens: 50%.
The model expects roughly 2.25 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Scotland the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Haiti Scotland1 meeting on record between Haiti and Scotland.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Haiti 0-1 Scotland |
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