Iran 2-2 New Zealand (FT). Group G, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Iran at 47% — it missed.
Iran2-2New Zealand (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group G tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Iran
New ZealandWe made Iran our pick at 47%; it finished 2-2 (draw). The model missed this one. We'd rather tell you that than pretend otherwise. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Iran New Zealand Iran and New Zealand shared a 2-2 draw in Group G at World Cup 2026, Matchday 1. Elijah Just, set up by Chris Wood, opened the scoring on 7'. Later, Ramin Rezaeian levelled it at 1-1 on 32'. Elijah Just, set up by Chris Wood, restored New Zealand's lead on 54'. Then Mohammad Mohebi, set up by Ramin Rezaeian, levelled it at 2-2 on 64'.
New Zealand controlled the ball with 52% possession and 14 shots to Iran's 17. An expected-goals figure of 1.50 to 1.24 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Iran the 47% favourite, but it did not call this one. Going in, the split read Iran 47%, Draw 32%, New Zealand 22%. Getting it wrong is part of the record too, and we publish every call. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Iran Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Iran and New Zealand drew 2-2 in their World Cup 2026 Group G clash. The four goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a booking and nine substitutions.
Iran Elijah Just Assist: Chris Wood GOAL Ramin Rezaeian GOAL Aria Yousefi for Mehdi Ghayedi SUB Shahriar Moghanlou for Ali Alipour SUB Elijah Just Assist: Chris Wood GOAL Mohammad Mohebi Assist: Ramin Rezaeian GOAL Saman Ghoddos for Ehsan Hajsafi SUB Liberato Cacace for Ben Old SUB Callum McCowatt for Ryan Thomas SUB Tim Payne for Callan Elliot SUB Mehdi Taremi for Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh SUB Ehsan Hajsafi YELLOW Sarpreet Singh for Jesse Randall SUB Marko Stamenic for Tyler Bindon SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Iran vs New Zealand in this World Cup 2026 Group G clash. Iran set up in a 4-4-2 and New Zealand in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Elijah Just, Ramin Rezaeian, and Mohammad Mohebi scored from the starting XI.
Iran vs New Zealand Iran 4-4-2 Confirmed XI 
New Zealand 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Iran's OutlookTheir last outing: a draw vs Egypt (1-1). Live-form lens has them at 53%, a 6pp split from the structural read worth noting.
New Zealand's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Belgium (1-5). Live-form lens: 19%.
The model expects roughly 2.17 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Iran the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Iran New Zealand3 meetings on record between Iran and New Zealand.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Iran 2-2 New Zealand |
| 2003 | Iran 3-0 New Zealand |
| 1973 | New Zealand 0-0 Iran |
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