The model gives New Zealand a 34% probability of advancing from Group G at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and rates their title chance at 0%. Ranked #86 in the FIFA Men's World Ranking, qualification is genuinely contested rather than settled.
These are long-run probabilities, not certainties. A team rated at a 34% chance to advance still goes out roughly 66 times in 100, and the model's read can turn on a single red card, injury, or a tight decision. The outlook updates after each match New Zealand play.
