New Zealand 1-5 Belgium (FT). Group G, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Belgium at 68% — it called it.
New Zealand1-5Belgium (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group G tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
New Zealand
BelgiumWe made Belgium our pick at 68%, and that's how it finished (1-5). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds New Zealand Belgium Belgium beat New Zealand 5-1 in Group G at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. The full goal timeline is not available.
Belgium controlled the ball with 54% possession and 35 shots to New Zealand's 6. An expected-goals figure of 0.24 to 3.64 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Belgium generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Belgium the 68% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was New Zealand 10%, Draw 22%, Belgium 68%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
New Zealand Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Belgium beat New Zealand 5-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group G clash. The seven goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought a disallowed effort, two bookings, and ten substitutions.
New Zealand Leandro Trossard Penalty cancelled VAR Leandro Trossard GOAL Leandro Trossard GOAL Marko Stamenic YELLOW Ryan Thomas for Ben Old SUB Sarpreet Singh for Jesse Randall SUB Leandro Trossard Assist: Hans Vanaken GOAL Elijah Just YELLOW Jérémy Doku for Matias Fernandez-Pardo SUB Tim Payne for Michael Boxall SUB Joe Bell for Callum McCowatt SUB Kevin De Bruyne GOAL Leandro Trossard for Alexis Saelemaekers SUB Kevin De Bruyne for Amadou Onana SUB Liberato Cacace for Francis de Vries SUB Elijah Just GOAL Charles De Ketelaere for Romelu Lukaku SUB Youri Tielemans for Nicolas Raskin SUB Romelu Lukaku Assist: Nicolas Raskin GOAL Alexis Saelemaekers Assist: Romelu Lukaku GOAL Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for New Zealand vs Belgium in this World Cup 2026 Group G clash. New Zealand set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Belgium in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Leandro Trossard, Kevin De Bruyne, and Elijah Just scored from the starting XI.
New Zealand vs Belgium New Zealand 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Belgium 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
New Zealand's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Belgium (1-5). Live-form lens has them at 16%, a 6pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Belgium's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Spain (1-2). Live-form lens: 57% (11pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.72 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Belgium the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
New Zealand Belgium1 meeting on record between New Zealand and Belgium.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | New Zealand 1-5 Belgium |
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