New Zealand 1-3 Egypt (FT). Group G, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Egypt at 49% — it called it.
New Zealand1-3Egypt (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group G tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
New Zealand
EgyptWe made Egypt our pick at 49%, and that's how it finished (1-3). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds New Zealand Egypt Egypt beat New Zealand 3-1 in Group G at World Cup 2026, Matchday 2. Finn Surman, set up by Tim Payne, opened the scoring on 15'. Later, Mostafa Ziko, set up by Mohamed Hany, levelled it at 1-1 on 58'. Mohamed Salah, set up by Mostafa Ziko, edged Egypt in front on 67'. Then Trézéguet, set up by Mohamed Salah, added a third on 82'.
Egypt controlled the ball with 56% possession and 19 shots to New Zealand's 11. An expected-goals figure of 1.12 to 1.96 says the scoreline slightly flattered the winner. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count.
Our structural model had made Egypt the 49% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was New Zealand 20%, Draw 31%, Egypt 49%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
New Zealand Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Egypt came from behind to beat New Zealand 3-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group G clash. The four goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought three bookings and 11 substitutions.
New Zealand Finn Surman Assist: Tim Payne GOAL Mohanad Lasheen YELLOW Sarpreet Singh YELLOW Callum McCowatt YELLOW Hamdy Fathy for Ramy Rabia SUB Mostafa Ziko Assist: Mohamed Hany GOAL Callum McCowatt for Ben Old SUB Mohamed Salah Assist: Mostafa Ziko GOAL Sarpreet Singh for Ryan Thomas SUB Liberato Cacace for Jesse Randall SUB Omar Marmoush for Trézéguet SUB Mostafa Ziko SUB Trézéguet Assist: Mohamed Salah GOAL Emam Ashour for Zizo SUB Mohamed Salah for Hossam Abdelmaguid SUB Tim Payne for Tyler Bindon SUB Elijah Just for Francis de Vries SUB Hossam Abdelmaguid for Mohamed Abdelmonem SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for New Zealand vs Egypt in this World Cup 2026 Group G clash. New Zealand set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Egypt in a 4-2-3-1, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Finn Surman, Mostafa Ziko, and Mohamed Salah scored from the starting XI.
New Zealand vs Egypt New Zealand 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Egypt 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
New Zealand's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Belgium (1-5). Live-form lens has them at 31%, a 11pp split from the structural read worth noting.
Egypt's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Argentina (2-3). Live-form lens: 39% (10pp divergence from structural).
The model expects roughly 2.21 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Egypt the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
New Zealand Egypt4 meetings on record between New Zealand and Egypt.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | New Zealand 1-3 Egypt |
| 2024 | Egypt 1-0 New Zealand |
| 1999 | Egypt 1-0 New Zealand |
| 1999 | Egypt 1-1 New Zealand |
Best sportsbooks for New Zealand vs Egypt, chosen for 1X2 depth, fast payouts, and strong welcome offers. Compare every site.
18+ only. T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly. Affiliate disclosure.
