Scotland 0-3 Brazil (FT). Group C, FIFA World Cup 2026. Our model's pick was Brazil at 57% — it called it.
Scotland0-3Brazil (FT) in this World Cup 2026 Group C tie, with the full stats, timeline, and an honest look at whether our model called it.
Scotland
BrazilWe made Brazil our pick at 57%, and that's how it finished (0-3). The structural model called this one. See our methodology.
Bet this match Up to $200 in bet credits Compare every site's odds Scotland Brazil Brazil beat Scotland 3-0 in Group C at World Cup 2026, Matchday 3. Vinícius Júnior, set up by Rayan, opened the scoring on 7'. Later, Vinícius Júnior, set up by Bruno Guimarães, doubled the lead on 45'. Matheus Cunha, set up by Bruno Guimarães, added a third on 60'.
Brazil controlled the ball with 54% possession and 21 shots to Scotland's 14. An expected-goals figure of 1.04 to 4.33 says the scoreline matched the balance of play. xG measures chance quality, not just shot count. Brazil generated the clearer chances by some distance.
Our structural model had made Brazil the 57% favourite, and it called this one right. The full pre-match split was Scotland 16%, Draw 27%, Brazil 57%. See our methodology for how the model is built.
Scotland Live match data from the gaffer pipeline. No invented numbers.
Brazil beat Scotland 3-0 in their World Cup 2026 Group C clash. The three goals were split across both halves, in a match that also brought three bookings and ten substitutions.
Scotland Vinícius Júnior Assist: Rayan GOAL Vinícius Júnior Assist: Bruno Guimarães GOAL Andrew Robertson for Kieran Tierney SUB Matheus Cunha Assist: Bruno Guimarães GOAL Danilo YELLOW Casemiro for Fabinho SUB Lucas Paquetá for Gabriel Martinelli SUB Matheus Cunha for Neymar SUB Fabinho YELLOW Ben Gannon-Doak for Ryan Christie SUB Nathan Patterson for Anthony Ralston SUB Douglas Santos for Alex Sandro SUB Rayan for Endrick SUB Ryan Christie YELLOW Lawrence Shankland for Che Adams SUB John McGinn for Findlay Curtis SUB Confirmed team news and starting line-ups for Scotland vs Brazil in this World Cup 2026 Group C clash. Scotland set up in a 4-2-3-1 and Brazil in a 4-1-2-3, with key players and substitutes for both sides below. Vinícius Júnior and Matheus Cunha scored from the starting XI.
Scotland vs Brazil Scotland 4-2-3-1 Confirmed XI 
Brazil 4-1-2-3 Confirmed XI 
Key player (most caps in the XI) Scored in this match Subbed off
Our structural model and the market land in the same place on this one, so there is no team-side edge to chase. What makes it interesting is our live-form lens, which weights recent results and reads the game differently from the base model. Here is the case on both sides, honestly.
Scotland's OutlookTheir last outing: a loss vs Brazil (0-3). Live-form lens has them at 20%, broadly in line with the structural model.
Brazil's OutlookLast time out: lost vs Norway (1-2). Live-form lens: 54%.
The model expects roughly 2.58 goals here.
No clean 1X2 value: structure and market agree, so the favourite is a fair price, not an edge.
Side-by-side comparison of the model's key probabilities and tournament outlook.
Insight: Our model gives Brazil the edge, fractionally ahead on all six measures: a higher win probability, better knockout odds and a clearer path to the semis.
The names that decide a tight game. International caps and goals are real squad data from the model's pipeline. Squad strength is one of the primary inputs the structural model weighs.
Scotland Brazil11 meetings on record between Scotland and Brazil.
| Year | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026 | Scotland 0-3 Brazil |
| 2011 | Brazil 2-0 Scotland |
| 1998 | Brazil 2-1 Scotland |
| 1990 | Brazil 1-0 Scotland |
| 1987 | Scotland 0-2 Brazil |
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